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Bundesliga

Referee: Sven Jablonski

Mainz

S T T S U

0–1

Full-time

RB Leipzig

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

4,2

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,5

4,0

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,0

3,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,90 xG 1,79

56% Possession 44%

13 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

4 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 13. · RB Leipzig 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.9	6
2	FC Koln	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.0	6
3	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.9	6
4	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.6	4
5	St Pauli	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.8	4
6	Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
7	Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
8	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-5.0	3
9	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
10	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
11	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.8	3
12	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	-4	+0.0	3
13	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.5	1
14	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.7	1
15	Hamburg	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.8	1
16	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.7	1
17	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.9	0
18	Freiburg	2	0	0	2	-5	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+6	+1.2	3
2	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
3	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
4	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.4	3
5	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
6	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
7	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.4	3
8	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.0	3
9	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
10	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
11	Wolfsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
12	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
13	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-3.7	0
14	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
15	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.3	0
16	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
17	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.7	0
18	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.3	3
2	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.7	3
3	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.1	3
4	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+3.7	3
5	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
6	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
7	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.3	3
8	Leverkusen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
9	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
10	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
11	Hamburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
12	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
13	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.0	0
14	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
15	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0
16	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
17	Union Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.4	0
18	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-6	-1.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.