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Bundesliga

Referee: T Stieler

Mainz

S S U U U

3–0

Full-time

Dortmund

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 35%

16%

53%

Points per game

0,9

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

41%

59%

Both score Ø 63%

59%

66%

Average goals

2,6

3,3

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,19 xG 0,36

32% Possession 68%

14 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 16. · Dortmund 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	32	26	6	0	+59	+38.8	84
2	Stuttgart	33	22	4	7	+35	+33.2	70
3	Bayern Munich	32	22	3	7	+49	+55.0	69
4	RB Leipzig	33	19	7	7	+38	+26.6	64
5	Dortmund	32	17	9	6	+24	+10.6	60
6	Ein Frankfurt	33	11	13	9	+1	-5.5	46
7	Freiburg	33	11	9	13	-12	+0.0	42
8	Hoffenheim	32	11	7	14	-8	-10.1	40
9	Heidenheim	33	9	12	12	-8	-22.6	39
10	Augsburg	33	10	9	14	-9	-9.2	39
11	Werder Bremen	33	10	9	14	-9	-11.4	39
12	Wolfsburg	32	10	7	15	-11	-3.5	37
13	M'gladbach	33	7	13	13	-7	-7.7	34
14	Bochum	32	7	12	13	-24	-15.4	33
15	Union Berlin	33	8	6	19	-26	-12.6	30
16	Mainz	32	5	14	13	-17	-1.7	29
17	FC Koln	33	5	12	16	-29	-27.6	27
18	Darmstadt	32	3	8	21	-46	-36.9	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	16	13	3	0	+35	+26.9	42
2	Bayern Munich	16	13	1	2	+39	+35.7	40
3	Stuttgart	16	12	3	1	+31	+24.7	39
4	RB Leipzig	17	11	4	2	+28	+21.2	37
5	Dortmund	16	9	3	4	+11	+11.8	30
6	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	7	2	+8	+6.0	28
7	Augsburg	17	6	6	5	+0	-2.4	24
8	Bochum	16	5	8	3	+2	+4.6	23
9	Heidenheim	16	6	5	5	+1	-6.5	23
10	Wolfsburg	16	6	4	6	+2	+0.9	22
11	Werder Bremen	16	6	4	6	+0	-1.5	22
12	Freiburg	17	5	7	5	-2	+8.7	22
13	M'gladbach	17	5	6	6	+1	+4.1	21
14	Mainz	16	5	5	6	+2	+9.5	20
15	Hoffenheim	16	5	5	6	-2	+4.3	20
16	Union Berlin	16	6	2	8	-9	-4.5	20
17	FC Koln	17	4	4	9	-13	-9.6	16
18	Darmstadt	16	1	3	12	-23	-11.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	16	13	3	0	+24	+11.9	42
2	Stuttgart	17	10	1	6	+4	+8.5	31
3	Dortmund	16	8	6	2	+13	-1.3	30
4	Bayern Munich	16	9	2	5	+10	+19.3	29
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	3	5	+10	+5.4	27
6	Hoffenheim	16	6	2	8	-6	-14.3	20
7	Freiburg	16	6	2	8	-10	-8.7	20
8	Ein Frankfurt	17	4	6	7	-7	-11.5	18
9	Werder Bremen	17	4	5	8	-9	-9.9	17
10	Heidenheim	17	3	7	7	-9	-16.0	16
11	Augsburg	16	4	3	9	-9	-6.8	15
12	Wolfsburg	16	4	3	9	-13	-4.5	15
13	M'gladbach	16	2	7	7	-8	-11.8	13
14	FC Koln	16	1	8	7	-16	-18.0	11
15	Darmstadt	16	2	5	9	-23	-25.5	11
16	Union Berlin	17	2	4	11	-17	-8.1	10
17	Bochum	16	2	4	10	-26	-20.0	10
18	Mainz	16	0	9	7	-19	-11.2	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.