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Bundesliga

Referee: T Reichel

Dortmund

S U S S U

2–2

Full-time

Heidenheim

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,0

4,3

Scored

3,0

2,7

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,5

3,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,5

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,36 xG 2,15

63% Possession 37%

20 Shots 15

9 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

3 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 22

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 6. · Heidenheim 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Union Berlin	2	2	0	0	+6	-0.9	6
2	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.5	6
3	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
4	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.7	6
5	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.5	6
6	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
7	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
8	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.8	3
9	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
10	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
11	Augsburg	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.6	1
12	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.1	1
13	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-3	+0.5	1
14	Bochum	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.6	1
15	FC Koln	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.5	0
16	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0
17	Darmstadt	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.4	0
18	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+5	+2.3	3
2	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.6	3
3	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.4	3
4	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
5	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
6	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
7	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
8	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
9	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
10	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
11	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	Bochum	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
13	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
14	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
15	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
16	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.5	0
17	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.5	0
18	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.3	3
2	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.5	3
3	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.5	3
4	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
5	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
6	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
7	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
8	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
9	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
10	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
11	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
12	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
13	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
14	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.2	0
15	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
16	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.4	0
17	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.6	0
18	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.