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Super League
Referee: A Dudic
Luzern
S U T S T
0–2
Full-time
Lugano
T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
83%
17%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
4,0
2,2
Scored
2,3
0,8
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 42%
42%
42%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
67%
55%
Both score Ø 69%
73%
64%
Average goals
3,4
2,9
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
1,5
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,92 xG 1,01
56% Possession 44%
22 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 7
11 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
11 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 12
4 Yellow cards 7
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Luzern 4. · Lugano 6.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Basel 33 18 7 8 +40 +21.2 61
2 Servette 33 15 10 8 +9 +0.2 55
3 Young Boys 34 15 8 11 +6 +8.6 53
4 Luzern 33 14 9 10 +10 +8.3 51
5 Lausanne 34 14 8 12 +9 +10.3 50
6 Lugano 33 14 7 12 +1 +8.8 49
7 St. Gallen 33 12 11 10 +3 -4.5 47
8 Zurich 34 13 8 13 -5 -2.9 47
9 Sion 34 10 9 15 -9 -0.2 39
10 Grasshoppers 34 7 12 15 -13 -10.9 33
11 Yverdon 33 8 9 16 -24 -15.6 33
12 Winterthur 34 9 6 19 -27 -23.3 33

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Luzern Lugano
12′
M. Bottani 0–1
M. Zanotti
Nicky Beloko 🟨
16′
21′
🟨 Yanis Cimignani
Half-time 0–1
K. Spadanuda 🔁
↦ N. Beloko
46′
Bung Meng Freimann 🟨
55′
Lars Villiger 🟨
55′
55′
🟨 Mattia Bottani
56′
🟨 Renato Steffen
59′
🔁 S. Osigwe
↦ A. Saipi
60′
🔁 O. Doumbia
↦ Daniel Dos Santos
61′
🟨 Ousmane Doumbia
68′
🔁 G. Koutsias
↦ Y. Cimignani
68′
🔁 Z. Brault-Guillard
↦ M. Bottani
69′
🟨 Ayman El Wafi
T. Klidje 🔁
↦ L. Villiger
71′
81′
🔁 A. Hajdari
↦ A. El Wafi
82′
🟨 Sebastian Osigwe
84′
🟨 Antonios Papadopoulos
Bung Meng Freimann 🟨
86′
Bung Meng Freimann 🟥
86′
J. Kadák 🔁
↦ A. Stanković
87′
S. Ottiger 🔁
↦ T. Owusu
87′
91′
G. Koutsias 0–2
R. Steffen
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Luzern

4-3-1-2
1 P. Loretz G
20 P. Dorn D
5 S. Knezevic D
46 B. Freimann D
22 R. Fernandes D
18 N. Beloko M
8 A. Stanković M
24 T. Owusu M
11 D. Rrudhani M
9 A. Grbic F
27 L. Villiger F
Bench (9)
7 K. Spadanuda
17 T. Klidje
16 J. Kadák
2 S. Ottiger
29 L. Winkler
10 S. Karweina
13 B. Freimann
90 V. Vasić
14 A. Cigaņiks

Coach: M. Frick

Lugano

4-3-1-2
1 A. Saipi G
6 A. Papadopoulos D
17 L. Mai D
22 A. El Wafi D
21 Y. Cimignani D
46 M. Zanotti M
8 A. Grgic M
25 U. Bislimi M
27 Daniel Dos Santos M
10 M. Bottani F
11 R. Steffen F
Bench (9)
58 S. Osigwe
20 O. Doumbia
70 G. Koutsias
2 Z. Brault-Guillard
5 A. Hajdari
18 H. Mahou
7 R. Macek
31 I. Aliseda
9 S. Vladi

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U
B ✓
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

A Dudic · 95 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,34 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.