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Bundesliga

Referee: F Zwayer

Fortuna Dusseldorf

T U T T T

1–0

Full-time

Mainz

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fortuna Dusseldorf Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

2,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

14%

29%

Points per game

0,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 86%

86%

Both score Ø 86%

100%

71%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,0

2,4

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

20 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 1

0 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Fortuna Dusseldorf 15. · Mainz 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	7	5	1	1	+9	16
2	Wolfsburg	7	4	3	0	+6	15
3	Bayern Munich	7	4	2	1	+12	14
4	Freiburg	7	4	2	1	+8	14
5	RB Leipzig	7	4	2	1	+8	14
6	Schalke 04	7	4	2	1	+7	14
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+4	14
8	Leverkusen	8	4	2	2	+1	14
9	Dortmund	7	3	3	1	+8	12
10	Hertha	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Werder Bremen	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Hoffenheim	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Mainz	7	2	0	5	-10	6
14	Augsburg	7	1	2	4	-11	5
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	1	1	5	-5	4
16	Union Berlin	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	FC Koln	7	1	1	5	-11	4
18	Paderborn	7	0	1	6	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	2	0	+5	11
2	Leverkusen	4	2	2	0	+3	8
3	Wolfsburg	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Bayern Munich	4	2	1	1	+8	7
5	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+8	7
6	M'gladbach	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Schalke 04	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Hertha	3	2	0	1	+0	6
9	Freiburg	4	1	2	1	+2	5
10	RB Leipzig	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Mainz	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-4	3
14	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-4	3
15	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-5	3
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	FC Koln	3	0	0	3	-7	0
18	Paderborn	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+9	10
2	Freiburg	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	M'gladbach	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Schalke 04	3	2	1	0	+6	7
5	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Wolfsburg	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Leverkusen	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Werder Bremen	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Dortmund	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Hoffenheim	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Hertha	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	FC Koln	4	1	1	2	-4	4
13	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	Mainz	4	1	0	3	-8	3
16	Paderborn	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Union Berlin	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Augsburg	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.