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Bundesliga

Referee: Manuel Gräfe

Fortuna Dusseldorf

T T T S U

0–1

Full-time

Mainz

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fortuna Dusseldorf Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,5

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

3,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

58%

50%

Average goals

3,4

2,1

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

20 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

12 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fortuna Dusseldorf 17. · Mainz 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	12	9	3	0	+22	30
2	M'gladbach	12	8	2	2	+16	26
3	Ein Frankfurt	12	7	2	3	+15	23
4	RB Leipzig	12	6	4	2	+12	22
5	Bayern Munich	12	6	3	3	+6	21
6	Hoffenheim	12	6	2	4	+9	20
7	Werder Bremen	12	5	3	4	+0	18
8	Hertha	12	4	5	3	-1	17
9	Wolfsburg	12	4	3	5	-1	15
10	Mainz	12	4	3	5	-3	15
11	Freiburg	12	3	5	4	-4	14
12	Leverkusen	12	4	2	6	-6	14
13	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-1	13
14	Schalke 04	12	4	1	7	-4	13
15	Nurnberg	12	2	4	6	-16	10
16	Hannover	12	2	3	7	-11	9
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	2	3	7	-15	9
18	Stuttgart	12	2	2	8	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	6	6	0	0	+15	18
2	Dortmund	6	5	1	0	+14	16
3	RB Leipzig	6	4	2	0	+12	14
4	Hertha	6	3	2	1	+2	11
5	Mainz	7	3	2	2	+1	11
6	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	1	1	+11	10
7	Hoffenheim	6	3	1	2	+5	10
8	Bayern Munich	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Schalke 04	6	3	0	3	+0	9
10	Freiburg	7	2	3	2	-1	9
11	Nurnberg	6	2	2	2	+1	8
12	Werder Bremen	6	2	2	2	-2	8
13	Wolfsburg	7	2	2	3	-3	8
14	Hannover	5	2	1	2	+0	7
15	Leverkusen	6	2	1	3	-4	7
16	Augsburg	6	1	3	2	+0	6
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	2	0	4	-3	6
18	Stuttgart	5	1	1	3	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+8	14
2	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	1	2	+4	13
3	Bayern Munich	6	4	0	2	+5	12
4	Hoffenheim	6	3	1	2	+4	10
5	Werder Bremen	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	M'gladbach	6	2	2	2	+1	8
7	RB Leipzig	6	2	2	2	+0	8
8	Wolfsburg	5	2	1	2	+2	7
9	Augsburg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Leverkusen	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Hertha	6	1	3	2	-3	6
12	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-4	4
14	Schalke 04	6	1	1	4	-4	4
15	Stuttgart	7	1	1	5	-9	4
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	0	3	3	-12	3
17	Hannover	7	0	2	5	-11	2
18	Nurnberg	6	0	2	4	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.