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Premiership
Referee: K Clancy
Hearts
S S U S S
2–0
Full-time
Aberdeen
S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hearts Aberdeen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premiership · 22/19 matches
Win Ø 44%
55%
32%
Points per game
1,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
36%
53%
Both score Ø 39%
36%
42%
Average goals
2,1
2,8
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
0,9
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%
15 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 8
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 7
0 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hearts 3. · Aberdeen 8. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Celtic 22 17 3 2 +38 54
2 Rangers 22 17 1 4 +34 52
3 Hearts 22 12 3 7 +7 39
4 Kilmarnock 22 8 7 7 +1 31
5 St Mirren 23 8 5 10 -5 29
6 Dundee 20 6 7 7 -4 25
7 Hibernian 21 6 7 8 -6 25
8 Aberdeen 19 6 5 8 -7 23
9 Motherwell 21 4 8 9 -9 20
10 ST Johnstone 21 4 8 9 -14 20
11 Ross County 19 4 6 9 -12 18
12 Livingston 22 2 6 14 -23 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Dec -23 Aberdeen – Hearts 2–1 16. Sep -23 Hearts – Aberdeen 2–0 20. May -23 Hearts – Aberdeen 2–1 18. Mar -23 Aberdeen – Hearts 3–0 18. Jan -23 Hearts – Aberdeen 5–0

Match report

Hearts Aberdeen
27′
ℹ️ Bojan Miovski
VAR: Goal cancelled
31′
🟨 Graeme Shinnie
Half-time 0–0
Alan Forrest ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
54′
1–0 J. Grant ⚽
57′
65′
🔁 Duk
↦ D. Polvara
Yutaro Oda 🟨
68′
K. Vargas 🔁
↦ Y. Oda
70′
70′
🔁 E. Sokler
↦ J. McGrath
70′
🔁 S. Morris
↦ C. Barron
71′
🔁 A. MacDonald
↦ S. Gartenmann
73′
🟨 Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes
2–0 L. Shankland ⚽
J. Grant
77′
M. Tait 🔁
↦ J. Grant
82′
C. Halkett 🔁
↦ L. Shankland
92′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Hearts

4-2-3-1
28 Z. Clark G
81 D. Lembikisa D
2 F. Kent D
3 S. Kingsley D
19 A. Cochrane D
8 C. Nieuwenhof M
6 B. Baningime M
11 Y. Oda M
7 J. Grant M
17 A. Forrest M
9 L. Shankland F
Bench (9)
77 K. Vargas
25 M. Tait
4 C. Halkett
54 J. Wilson
1 C. Gordon
30 K. Tagawa
22 A. Denholm
24 F. Pollock
21 T. Sibbick

Coach: S. Naismith

Aberdeen

4-2-3-1
24 K. Roos G
2 N. Devlin D
6 S. Gartenmann D
5 R. Jensen D
3 J. MacKenzie D
8 C. Barron M
4 G. Shinnie M
21 D. Polvara M
10 L. Clarkson M
7 J. McGrath M
9 B. Miovski F
Bench (9)
11 Duk
19 E. Sokler
20 S. Morris
27 A. MacDonald
31 R. Doohan
17 J. Hayes
14 P. Guèye
28 J. Milne
23 R. Duncan

Coach: B. Robson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,13
🔒
U
3,34
🔒
B
3,42
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
2,03
🔒
U2,5 ✓
1,76
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

K Clancy · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.