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Premiership
Referee: W Collum
Hearts
U S S U S
5–0
Full-time
Aberdeen
T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hearts Aberdeen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,3
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,5
Scored
2,2
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,5
This season — Premiership · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 46%
48%
43%
Points per game
1,7
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
62%
62%
Both score Ø 60%
62%
57%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
1,8
1,7
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

55% Possession 45%
12 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 8
1 Offside 2
18 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hearts 3. · Aberdeen 5. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Celtic 21 19 1 1 +48 58
2 Rangers 21 15 4 2 +28 49
3 Hearts 21 10 5 6 +6 35
4 Livingston 21 9 4 8 -6 31
5 Aberdeen 21 9 2 10 +3 29
6 St Mirren 20 7 6 7 -5 27
7 Hibernian 22 8 3 11 -8 27
8 ST Johnstone 22 7 3 12 -10 24
9 Motherwell 21 5 5 11 -6 20
10 Dundee United 21 5 5 11 -12 20
11 Kilmarnock 21 5 5 11 -18 20
12 Ross County 22 4 5 13 -20 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

16. Oct -22 Aberdeen – Hearts 2–0 2. Mar -22 Hearts – Aberdeen 2–0 30. Oct -21 Aberdeen – Hearts 2–1 22. Aug -21 Hearts – Aberdeen 1–1 29. Dec -19 Hearts – Aberdeen 1–1

Match report

Hearts Aberdeen
0–1 G. Shinnie ⚽
own goal
15′
1–1 M. Smith ⚽
T. Sibbick
28′
Lawrence Shankland ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
39′
39′
🟨 Duk
2–1 L. Shankland ⚽
40′
Half-time 3–1
3–1 J. Ginnelly ⚽
L. Shankland
46′
54′
🔁 V. Besuijen
↦ J. Hayes
Kye Rowles 🟨
55′
61′
🔁 P. Myslovič
↦ L. Clarkson
61′
🔁 R. Duncan
↦ B. Miovski
4–1 C. Devlin ⚽
L. Shankland
61′
S. Humphrys 🔁
↦ J. Ginnelly
65′
J. Grant 🔁
↦ B. McKay
65′
71′
🔁 J. Richardson
↦ M. Kennedy
72′
🔁 M. Watkins
↦ Duk
S. Kingsley 🔁
↦ T. Sibbick
75′
Y. Oda 🔁
↦ R. Snodgrass
85′
A. Forrest 🔁
↦ M. Smith
85′
92′
ℹ️ Marley Watkins
VAR: Goal cancelled
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Hearts

3-4-2-1
28 Z. Clark G
72 J. Hill D
21 T. Sibbick D
15 K. Rowles D
2 M. Smith M
14 C. Devlin M
77 R. Snodgrass M
19 A. Cochrane M
9 L. Shankland F
18 B. McKay F
30 J. Ginnelly F
Bench (9)
29 S. Humphrys
7 J. Grant
3 S. Kingsley
88 Y. Oda
17 A. Forrest
12 N. Atkinson
20 L. Neilson
13 R. Stewart
8 O. Kiomourtzoglou

Coach: R. Neilson

Aberdeen

4-2-3-1
1 J. Lewis G
33 M. Kennedy D
2 R. McCrorie D
4 L. Scales D
22 H. Coulson D
16 Y. Ramadani M
6 G. Shinnie M
17 J. Hayes M
20 L. Clarkson M
11 Duk M
9 B. Miovski F
Bench (9)
10 V. Besuijen
14 P. Myslovič
23 R. Duncan
25 J. Richardson
15 M. Watkins
30 T. Ritchie
21 D. Polvara
8 C. Barron
36 A. Bavidge

Coach: J. Goodwin

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,13
🔒
U
3,51
🔒
B
3,26
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,83
🔒
U2,5
1,96
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

W Collum · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.