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Premiership
Referee: C Graham
Aberdeen
T U U T T
2–1
Full-time
Hearts
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aberdeen Hearts
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,2
1,7
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
2,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premiership · 14/15 matches
Win Ø 34%
21%
47%
Points per game
0,9
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 35%
43%
27%
Both score Ø 32%
36%
27%
Average goals
2,8
1,8
Scored
1,1
0,9
Conceded
1,7
0,9
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%
14 Shots 5
6 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 8
4 Offside 0
13 Free kicks against 20
3 Yellow cards 7
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Aberdeen 11. · Hearts 3. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Celtic 16 13 3 0 +32 42
2 Rangers 15 11 1 3 +23 34
3 Hearts 15 7 2 6 +1 23
4 St Mirren 16 6 4 6 -3 22
5 Hibernian 16 5 6 5 -2 21
6 Kilmarnock 16 5 5 6 +0 20
7 Dundee 14 4 6 4 -2 18
8 Ross County 15 4 5 6 -6 17
9 Motherwell 16 3 5 8 -9 14
10 ST Johnstone 15 3 5 7 -12 14
11 Aberdeen 14 3 4 7 -9 13
12 Livingston 14 2 4 8 -13 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

16. Sep -23 Hearts – Aberdeen 2–0 20. May -23 Hearts – Aberdeen 2–1 18. Mar -23 Aberdeen – Hearts 3–0 18. Jan -23 Hearts – Aberdeen 5–0 16. Oct -22 Aberdeen – Hearts 2–0

Match report

Aberdeen Hearts
20′
⚽ L. Shankland 0–1
A. Cochrane
33′
🟨 Calem Nieuwenhof
41′
🟨 Alex Lowry
Half-time 1–1
1–1 B. Miovski ⚽
J. McGrath
53′
57′
🔁 K. Tagawa
↦ K. Vargas
58′
🔁 J. Grant
↦ A. Lowry
Stefan Gartenmann 🟨
59′
64′
🟨 Beni Baningime
Bojan Miovski 🟨
65′
65′
🟨 Frankie Kent
72′
🔁 A. Denholm
↦ C. Nieuwenhof
72′
🔁 C. Halkett
↦ T. Sibbick
73′
🟨 Kye Rowles
Duk 🔁
↦ E. Sokler
73′
S. Morris 🔁
↦ J. Milne
73′
D. Polvara 🔁
↦ B. Miovski
77′
Jamie McGrath 🟨
78′
88′
🟨 Aidan Denholm
2–1 L. Clarkson ⚽
Duk
92′
96′
🟨 Lawrence Shankland
A. MacDonald 🔁
↦ J. McGrath
97′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Aberdeen

3-4-1-2
24 K. Roos G
2 N. Devlin D
6 S. Gartenmann D
5 R. Jensen D
28 J. Milne M
10 L. Clarkson M
4 G. Shinnie M
17 J. Hayes M
7 J. McGrath F
9 B. Miovski F
19 E. Sokler F
Bench (9)
11 Duk
20 S. Morris
21 D. Polvara
27 A. MacDonald
33 S. Rubežić
8 C. Barron
23 R. Duncan
31 R. Doohan
15 J. McGarry

Coach: B. Robson

Hearts

3-5-2
28 Z. Clark G
3 S. Kingsley D
2 F. Kent D
15 K. Rowles D
21 T. Sibbick M
8 C. Nieuwenhof M
6 B. Baningime M
51 A. Lowry M
19 A. Cochrane M
9 L. Shankland F
77 K. Vargas F
Bench (8)
30 K. Tagawa
7 J. Grant
22 A. Denholm
4 C. Halkett
11 Y. Oda
17 A. Forrest
1 C. Gordon
18 B. McKay

Coach: S. Naismith

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,59
🔒
U
3,39
🔒
B
2,62
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,90
🔒
U2,5
1,87
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Graham · 44 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.