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La Liga

Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero

Barcelona

S S S S T

3–5

Full-time

Villarreal

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

4,8

3,5

Scored

2,8

1,2

Conceded

2,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 20/21 matches

Win Ø 45%

65%

24%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

60%

71%

Both score Ø 73%

65%

81%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,21 xG 2,18

71% Possession 29%

22 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 0

0 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 3. · Villarreal 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	21	17	3	1	+31	+18.5	54
2	Girona	21	16	4	1	+26	+9.1	52
3	Barcelona	20	13	5	2	+16	+25.8	44
4	Ath Madrid	20	13	2	5	+17	+11.1	41
5	Ath Bilbao	21	12	5	4	+17	+15.8	41
6	Sociedad	22	9	9	4	+11	+1.9	36
7	Valencia	21	9	5	7	+3	+0.6	32
8	Las Palmas	22	9	4	9	+3	-14.6	31
9	Betis	21	7	10	4	+0	-1.7	31
10	Getafe	20	6	8	6	-2	-4.0	26
11	Alaves	22	7	5	10	-5	+2.9	26
12	Osasuna	20	7	4	9	-6	-4.3	25
13	Vallecano	21	5	9	7	-8	-2.8	24
14	Mallorca	21	3	11	7	-6	-4.3	20
15	Villarreal	21	5	5	11	-14	-4.8	20
16	Celta	21	3	8	10	-10	-2.7	17
17	Sevilla	21	3	7	11	-9	-9.2	16
18	Cadiz	21	2	9	10	-16	-14.9	15
19	Granada	21	2	5	14	-20	-12.7	11
20	Almeria	22	0	6	16	-28	-9.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	9	1	0	+19	+14.8	28
2	Girona	11	9	1	1	+16	+5.8	28
3	Ath Madrid	10	9	1	0	+12	+10.8	28
4	Ath Bilbao	11	8	2	1	+15	+14.4	26
5	Barcelona	10	8	0	2	+10	+12.2	24
6	Betis	11	6	4	1	+7	+5.9	22
7	Valencia	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.2	20
8	Sociedad	11	5	5	1	+7	+0.7	20
9	Las Palmas	11	5	3	3	+5	-5.6	18
10	Getafe	9	5	3	1	+3	+0.0	18
11	Alaves	10	5	1	4	+0	+6.7	16
12	Osasuna	11	4	3	4	-2	-0.1	15
13	Mallorca	10	2	7	1	+1	-0.5	13
14	Villarreal	11	3	2	6	-4	+2.4	11
15	Cadiz	10	2	5	3	-4	+1.3	11
16	Sevilla	11	2	4	5	-3	-2.4	10
17	Granada	11	2	4	5	-6	-3.0	10
18	Celta	11	2	4	5	-6	+4.5	10
19	Vallecano	10	1	5	4	-9	-2.7	8
20	Almeria	11	0	5	6	-11	+1.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	11	8	2	1	+12	+3.7	26
2	Girona	10	7	3	0	+10	+3.3	24
3	Barcelona	10	5	5	0	+6	+13.6	20
4	Sociedad	11	4	4	3	+4	+1.2	16
5	Vallecano	11	4	4	3	+1	-0.2	16
6	Ath Bilbao	10	4	3	3	+2	+1.4	15
7	Ath Madrid	10	4	1	5	+5	+0.3	13
8	Las Palmas	11	4	1	6	-2	-9.0	13
9	Valencia	11	3	3	5	-5	-3.7	12
10	Osasuna	9	3	1	5	-4	-4.2	10
11	Alaves	12	2	4	6	-5	-3.9	10
12	Betis	10	1	6	3	-7	-7.6	9
13	Villarreal	10	2	3	5	-10	-7.2	9
14	Getafe	11	1	5	5	-5	-4.0	8
15	Celta	10	1	4	5	-4	-7.1	7
16	Mallorca	11	1	4	6	-7	-3.8	7
17	Sevilla	10	1	3	6	-6	-6.8	6
18	Cadiz	11	0	4	7	-12	-16.2	4
19	Granada	10	0	1	9	-14	-9.8	1
20	Almeria	11	0	1	10	-17	-10.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.