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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Millwall

S S T T T

1–1

Full-time

Preston

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Preston

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 34%

29%

39%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

43%

61%

Both score Ø 50%

39%

61%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,77 xG 1,30

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 5

19 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 18. · Preston 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	28	21	3	4	+34	+23.0	66
2	Ipswich	28	17	8	3	+16	+13.0	59
3	Southampton	27	16	7	4	+20	+20.3	55
4	Leeds	27	15	6	6	+23	+23.9	51
5	West Brom	27	13	6	8	+14	+7.1	45
6	Coventry	28	11	10	7	+13	+6.4	43
7	Hull	28	12	6	10	+4	+5.9	42
8	Norwich	27	12	5	10	+4	-5.3	41
9	Watford	28	10	10	8	+7	+2.8	40
10	Sunderland	28	12	4	12	+6	+11.9	40
11	Middlesbrough	28	12	4	12	+1	+13.4	40
12	Preston	28	11	5	12	-12	-10.4	38
13	Bristol City	28	10	7	11	+0	+1.3	37
14	Cardiff	28	11	4	13	-4	-12.7	37
15	Plymouth	28	8	9	11	+0	-12.0	33
16	Swansea	28	8	9	11	-6	-11.7	33
17	Blackburn	28	10	3	15	-12	-4.3	33
18	Millwall	28	8	8	12	-7	-8.0	32
19	Stoke	28	8	8	12	-7	-0.7	32
20	Birmingham	28	8	8	12	-10	-5.8	32
21	Huddersfield	28	5	12	11	-18	-14.2	27
22	QPR	28	6	6	16	-15	-8.3	24
23	Sheffield Weds	28	6	4	18	-24	-6.2	22
24	Rotherham	28	3	10	15	-27	-29.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	14	10	4	0	+20	+17.6	34
2	Leicester	14	11	1	2	+20	+13.0	34
3	Ipswich	14	10	3	1	+14	+14.0	33
4	West Brom	14	9	3	2	+13	+9.3	30
5	Southampton	13	9	2	2	+18	+15.2	29
6	Plymouth	14	8	3	3	+13	-2.2	27
7	Norwich	13	8	2	3	+8	+3.4	26
8	Coventry	14	6	7	1	+9	+6.0	25
9	Sunderland	14	8	0	6	+5	+8.7	24
10	Preston	14	7	2	5	-4	-3.8	23
11	Hull	14	6	4	4	+7	+7.8	22
12	Birmingham	14	5	6	3	+3	-0.3	21
13	Bristol City	14	6	3	5	+2	+2.3	21
14	Watford	14	5	5	4	+7	+8.1	20
15	Cardiff	14	6	2	6	+0	-7.6	20
16	Middlesbrough	14	6	2	6	+0	+8.6	20
17	Swansea	14	4	5	5	-1	-1.5	17
18	Blackburn	14	5	2	7	-5	+1.8	17
19	Stoke	14	4	4	6	-4	+3.3	16
20	Rotherham	14	3	6	5	-2	-7.7	15
21	Sheffield Weds	14	4	3	7	-5	+0.7	15
22	Huddersfield	14	3	6	5	-6	-4.4	15
23	Millwall	14	4	3	7	-7	-2.2	15
24	QPR	14	3	3	8	-7	-0.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	14	10	2	2	+14	+10.0	32
2	Southampton	14	7	5	2	+2	+5.0	26
3	Ipswich	14	7	5	2	+2	-1.0	26
4	Middlesbrough	14	6	2	6	+1	+4.8	20
5	Watford	14	5	5	4	+0	-5.2	20
6	Hull	14	6	2	6	-3	-1.9	20
7	Coventry	14	5	3	6	+4	+0.4	18
8	Leeds	13	5	2	6	+3	+6.4	17
9	Millwall	14	4	5	5	+0	-5.7	17
10	Cardiff	14	5	2	7	-4	-5.1	17
11	Sunderland	14	4	4	6	+1	+3.2	16
12	Bristol City	14	4	4	6	-2	-1.0	16
13	Stoke	14	4	4	6	-3	-4.0	16
14	Swansea	14	4	4	6	-5	-10.2	16
15	Blackburn	14	5	1	8	-7	-6.1	16
16	West Brom	13	4	3	6	+1	-2.2	15
17	Norwich	14	4	3	7	-4	-8.7	15
18	Preston	14	4	3	7	-8	-6.6	15
19	QPR	14	3	3	8	-8	-7.5	12
20	Huddersfield	14	2	6	6	-12	-9.8	12
21	Birmingham	14	3	2	9	-13	-5.5	11
22	Sheffield Weds	14	2	1	11	-19	-6.9	7
23	Plymouth	14	0	6	8	-13	-9.8	6
24	Rotherham	14	0	4	10	-25	-21.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.