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Eredivisie

Referee: D Higler

Heracles

T T T S U

2–4

Full-time

Ajax

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heracles Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,8

4,3

Scored

1,3

2,7

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 39%

28%

50%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

78%

89%

Both score Ø 70%

61%

78%

Average goals

3,6

4,2

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

2,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,01 xG 4,00

27% Possession 73%

13 Shots 31

7 Shots on target 12

2 Blocked shots 12

7 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 11

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heracles 15. · Ajax 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	19	18	1	0	+54	+42.6	55
2	Feyenoord	18	13	3	2	+35	+36.8	42
3	Twente	18	11	4	3	+15	+11.9	37
4	AZ Alkmaar	18	10	4	4	+20	+12.4	34
5	Ajax	18	9	4	5	+9	+5.9	31
6	Sparta Rotterdam	19	7	5	7	+0	-4.3	26
7	Go Ahead Eagles	17	7	4	6	+4	-7.2	25
8	Nijmegen	17	6	6	5	+4	-12.4	24
9	Zwolle	19	6	5	8	-4	-5.5	23
10	Excelsior	18	4	8	6	-4	-8.5	20
11	Heerenveen	18	6	2	10	-9	-3.9	20
12	For Sittard	18	5	5	8	-13	-1.0	20
13	Almere City	19	5	5	9	-17	-9.2	20
14	Utrecht	18	4	7	7	-9	-10.1	19
15	Heracles	18	5	4	9	-18	-10.4	19
16	Waalwijk	19	4	3	12	-17	-6.9	15
17	Volendam	18	3	3	12	-23	-13.6	12
18	Vitesse	19	3	3	13	-27	-16.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+26	+25.8	30
2	Twente	9	7	1	1	+7	+6.3	22
3	Feyenoord	9	6	2	1	+18	+15.9	20
4	AZ Alkmaar	10	6	2	2	+14	+12.4	20
5	Ajax	9	6	1	2	+12	+8.0	19
6	For Sittard	9	5	2	2	+4	+7.3	17
7	Go Ahead Eagles	9	5	1	3	+10	+4.6	16
8	Nijmegen	9	4	2	3	+6	+1.4	14
9	Heerenveen	8	4	1	3	+5	+6.8	13
10	Excelsior	9	2	5	2	+0	+0.6	11
11	Zwolle	10	3	2	5	-5	+1.3	11
12	Heracles	9	3	2	4	-9	-5.2	11
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-5	-0.5	9
14	Almere City	9	2	3	4	-7	-2.6	9
15	Utrecht	9	1	5	3	-7	-4.7	8
16	Waalwijk	10	2	2	6	-8	-5.1	8
17	Volendam	8	2	1	5	-9	+0.3	7
18	Vitesse	9	1	3	5	-7	-4.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	8	1	0	+28	+16.8	25
2	Feyenoord	9	7	1	1	+17	+20.9	22
3	Sparta Rotterdam	10	5	2	3	+5	-3.8	17
4	Twente	9	4	3	2	+8	+5.5	15
5	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	2	2	+6	-0.0	14
6	Zwolle	9	3	3	3	+1	-6.9	12
7	Ajax	9	3	3	3	-3	-2.1	12
8	Utrecht	9	3	2	4	-2	-5.4	11
9	Almere City	10	3	2	5	-10	-6.6	11
10	Nijmegen	8	2	4	2	-2	-13.8	10
11	Excelsior	9	2	3	4	-4	-9.1	9
12	Go Ahead Eagles	8	2	3	3	-6	-11.7	9
13	Heracles	9	2	2	5	-9	-5.2	8
14	Waalwijk	9	2	1	6	-9	-1.9	7
15	Heerenveen	10	2	1	7	-14	-10.7	7
16	Vitesse	10	2	0	8	-20	-11.5	6
17	Volendam	10	1	2	7	-14	-13.9	5
18	For Sittard	9	0	3	6	-17	-8.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.