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Copa del Rey

Referee: Manuel Pozueta

Barakaldo

0–0

Full-time

Malaga

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Celta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Eibar	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Las Palmas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Sp Gijon	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Hernán Cortés	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Antequera	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Tardienta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Cayón	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Barbastro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Atlético Astorga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Valle Egüés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Arandina	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
34	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
35	Atlético Lugones	2	1	0	1	-5	3
36	Zamora	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Rubí	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Cadiz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Cartagena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
77	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hernán Cortés	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Tardienta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Barbastro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Atlético Astorga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Valle Egüés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Arandina	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
8	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Zamora	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Rubí	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
37	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
38	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Celta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Eibar	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Las Palmas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Sp Gijon	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Antequera	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Atlético Lugones	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Cayón	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Cadiz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Cartagena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Barakaldo Malaga

3′

🟨 G. Rodriguez

O. Lopez 🟨

20′

38′

🔁 Miguel Ángel Santaella

↦ Nélson Monte

Half-time 0–0

61′

🟨 D. Murillo

62′

🟨 H. Abaida

Xabi Cortezón 🔁

↦ Íñigo Orozco

64′

Antonio Salado 🔁

↦ Isuskiza

64′

73′

🔁 David Larrubia

↦ H. Abaida

73′

🔁 Juanpe

↦ Juan Hernández

Imanol Torre 🔁

↦ Oier López

75′

Jon Gaztañaga 🔁

↦ Julen Huidobro

75′

E. Molina 🟨

81′

86′

🔁 Roberto Fernández

↦ Loren Zúñiga

86′

🔁 Dioni

↦ Genaro Rodríguez

J. Gaztanaga 🟨

87′

Unai Vélez 🔁

↦ Ekaitz Molina

90′

Markel Artetxe 🔁

↦ Borja García

92′

98′

🔁 Dani Sánchez

↦ Diego Murillo

A. Salado 🟨

117′

121′

⚽ Antonio Cordero 0–1

1–1 Antonio Salado ⚽

122′

123′

❌ Dioni

penalty missed

2–1 Imanol Torre ⚽

124′

125′

⚽ Roberto Fernández 2–2

Markel Artetxe ❌

penalty missed

126′

127′

⚽ Juanpe 2–3

Unai Vélez ❌

penalty missed

128′

129′

⚽ Dani Lorenzo 2–4

Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Barakaldo

1 Jon Tena

3 Borja García

21 Aimar Sagastibelza

7 Iker Pedernales

16 Oier López

5 Ekaitz Molina

8 Julen Huidobro

19 Isuskiza

14 Urki Txoperena

20 Íñigo Orozco

11 Endika Bujan

Bench (11)

9 Xabi Cortezón

15 Antonio Salado

10 Imanol Torre

4 Jon Gaztañaga

6 Unai Vélez

12 Markel Artetxe

2 Beñat de Jesús

22 Ander Laka

23 Jonan Gromaz

13 Unai Pérez

17 Ander Pacheco

Coach: Imanol de la Sota

Malaga

Carlos López

Einar Galilea

Nélson Monte

3 B. Ouacharaf

25 Diego Murillo

16 Genaro Rodríguez

Dani Lorenzo

21 Juan Hernández

H. Abaida

9 Loren Zúñiga

Antonio Cordero

Bench (11)

32 Miguel Ángel Santaella

10 David Larrubia

8 Juanpe

19 Roberto Fernández

17 Dioni

18 Dani Sánchez

11 Kevin Medina

27 Jesús Martin

1 Alfonso Herrero

2 Gabilondo

31 Rafael Garrido

Coach: Sergio Pellicer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

U ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5

–

🔒

U1,5 ✓

–

🔒

O2,5

–

🔒

U2,5 ✓

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

–

🔒

BLS nei ✓

–

🔒

Recent matches

No matches played yet.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Barakaldo

Malaga

Odds comparison

Recent matches