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Copa del Rey
1–0
Full-time
Valladolid
T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Palma del Rio 2 2 0 0 +10 6
2 Sant Just 2 2 0 0 +6 6
3 CD Sant Jordi 3 2 0 1 -2 6
4 Puerto de Vega 2 1 1 0 +4 4
5 CD Yuncos 2 1 1 0 +2 4
6 Deportivo Getxo 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Maracena 3 1 1 1 -3 4
8 Inter de Valdemoro 3 1 1 1 -9 4
9 Getafe 1 1 0 0 +11 3
10 Valencia 1 1 0 0 +5 3
11 Osasuna 1 1 0 0 +5 3
12 Granada 1 1 0 0 +4 3
13 Elche 1 1 0 0 +4 3
14 Santander 1 1 0 0 +4 3
15 Tenerife 1 1 0 0 +4 3
16 CF Talavera 1 1 0 0 +3 3
17 Sevilla 1 1 0 0 +3 3
18 Huesca 1 1 0 0 +3 3
19 Sociedad 1 1 0 0 +3 3
20 Albacete 1 1 0 0 +3 3
21 Ourense CF 1 1 0 0 +2 3
22 Cadiz 1 1 0 0 +2 3
23 Extremadura 1924 1 1 0 0 +2 3
24 Cultural Leonesa 1 1 0 0 +2 3
25 Zaragoza 1 1 0 0 +2 3
26 Ceuta 1 1 0 0 +2 3
27 Girona 1 1 0 0 +1 3
28 Guadalajara 1 1 0 0 +1 3
29 Sabadell 1 1 0 0 +1 3
30 Burgos 1 1 0 0 +1 3
31 SD Negreira 3 1 0 2 +0 3
32 Manises 2 1 0 1 +0 3
33 Textil Escudo 2 1 0 1 -3 3
34 Los Garres 3 1 0 2 -4 3
35 Ebro 1 0 1 0 +0 1
36 Tarazona 1 0 1 0 +0 1
37 Langreo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
38 Ferrol 1 0 1 0 +0 1
39 Betis Valladolid 2 0 1 1 -1 1
40 Universitario FC 2 0 1 1 -2 1
41 Sporting Ceuta 2 0 1 1 -2 1
42 Campanario 2 0 1 1 -2 1
43 Alberite 2 0 1 1 -4 1
44 Constància 1 0 0 1 -1 0
45 Cacereño 1 0 0 1 -1 0
46 Poblense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
47 Atlético Tordesillas 1 0 0 1 -1 0
48 Oviedo 1 0 0 1 -2 0
49 Ucam Murcia 1 0 0 1 -2 0
50 Las Palmas 1 0 0 1 -2 0
51 Tropezón 1 0 0 1 -2 0
52 Mutilvera 1 0 0 1 -2 0
53 La Unión Atlético 1 0 0 1 -2 0
54 Rayo Majadahonda 1 0 0 1 -3 0
55 Lourdes 2 0 0 2 -3 0
56 Toledo 1 0 0 1 -3 0
57 Utebo 1 0 0 1 -3 0
58 San Fernando CD 1 0 0 1 -3 0
59 Roda 1 0 0 1 -4 0
60 SD Logroñés 1 0 0 1 -4 0
61 RSD Alcalá 1 0 0 1 -4 0
62 Atletico Calatayud 2 0 0 2 -6 0
63 Atlético Melilla 2 0 0 2 -10 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Portugalete Valladolid
34′
🟨 I. Alani
P. Belar 🟨
37′
O. del Cura 🟨
42′
Half-time 0–0
G. Tapiador 🟨
52′
1–0 X. Gomez
57′
60′
🟨 D. Torres
Lete 🔁
↦ G. Crespo
63′
68′
🔁 S. Juric
↦ M. Lachuer
68′
🔁 J. Ponceau
↦ H. Modesto
68′
🔁 Peter Federico
↦ I. Alani
68′
🔁 A. Ndiaye
↦ X. Moreno
I. Llamazares 🔁
↦ I. Quintana
69′
I. Aranburu 🔁
↦ X. Gomez
69′
I. Quintana 🟨
70′
75′
🔁 A. Arnuncio
↦ J. Delgado
U. Garces 🔁
↦ P. Belar
77′
A. Perez Alvarez 🔁
↦ Y. Cuello
77′
95′
🟨 A. Arnuncio
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Portugalete

1 I. Gonzalez
17 G. Alfaro
5 A. Gonzalez
14 O. del Cura
21 P. Belar
3 I. Recio
6 I. Quintana
15 X. Gomez
16 Y. Cuello
18 G. Crespo
Bench (11)
13 A. Velarde
10 B. I. San Miguel
24 M. Fernandez
19 U. Garces
23 I. Llamazares
22 M. Ortiz
9 A. Perez
8 A. Perez Alvarez
20 I. Aranburu
7 Lete
2 I. Artola

Coach: Egoitz Bilbao

Valladolid

1 A. Aceves
2 Trilli
5 J. Sanchez
4 D. Torres
30 H. Modesto
20 Chuki
12 I. Alani
6 M. Lachuer
28 X. Moreno
10 Marcos Andre
18 J. Delgado
Bench (11)
26 A. de Pablo
34 J. L. Aranda
32 Koke
3 G. Bueno
24 S. Juric
16 M. Maroto
21 J. Ponceau
17 S. Biuk
22 Peter Federico
11 A. Ndiaye
19 A. Arnuncio

Coach: Fran Escriba

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.