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Ligue 1

Referee: Jeremy Stinat

Paris FC

T U S T T

3–3

Full-time

Lyon

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris FC Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,1

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 61%

78%

44%

Average goals

3,4

2,4

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,62 xG 1,25

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 5

18 Free kicks against 16

6 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Paris FC 12. · Lyon 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	6	3	1	+11	+6.9	21
2	Lens	10	6	1	3	+4	+2.5	19
3	Marseille	9	6	0	3	+13	+8.1	18
4	Lyon	9	6	0	3	+4	+7.7	18
5	Lille	10	5	2	3	+9	+6.1	17
6	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+5	+5.2	17
7	Nice	10	5	2	3	+1	-5.7	17
8	Strasbourg	9	5	1	3	+6	+4.9	16
9	Toulouse	9	4	1	4	+2	+0.6	13
10	Le Havre	10	3	3	4	-4	-0.4	12
11	Rennes	9	2	5	2	-2	-2.2	11
12	Paris FC	9	3	1	5	-3	-2.1	10
13	Nantes	9	2	3	4	-3	-7.5	9
14	Brest	10	2	3	5	-4	-0.2	9
15	Angers	9	2	3	4	-6	-8.5	9
16	Lorient	10	2	3	5	-9	-2.1	9
17	Auxerre	9	2	1	6	-6	-3.1	7
18	Metz	10	1	2	7	-18	-10.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+7	+7.0	13
2	Nice	6	4	1	1	+5	-1.3	13
3	Marseille	4	4	0	0	+12	+8.0	12
4	Lens	5	4	0	1	+6	+6.8	12
5	Lyon	5	4	0	1	+5	+6.3	12
6	Lille	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.8	10
7	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.1	10
8	Strasbourg	4	3	0	1	+6	+5.8	9
9	Le Havre	5	2	2	1	+2	+5.1	8
10	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.9	8
11	Angers	5	2	2	1	+1	-2.4	8
12	Lorient	5	2	2	1	+0	+0.4	8
13	Toulouse	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.0	7
14	Paris FC	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.9	6
15	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.3	6
16	Brest	5	1	2	2	-1	+2.0	5
17	Metz	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.1	5
18	Nantes	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	3	2	1	+6	+3.8	11
2	Lille	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.3	7
3	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
4	Lens	5	2	1	2	-2	-4.3	7
5	Marseille	5	2	0	3	+1	+0.0	6
6	Lyon	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.4	6
7	Toulouse	5	2	0	3	-1	-2.4	6
8	Nantes	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.6	5
9	Monaco	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.9	4
10	Brest	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.2	4
11	Nice	4	1	1	2	-4	-4.5	4
12	Paris FC	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.0	4
13	Le Havre	5	1	1	3	-6	-5.5	4
14	Rennes	4	0	3	1	-4	-4.1	3
15	Auxerre	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.8	1
16	Angers	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1
17	Lorient	5	0	1	4	-9	-2.4	1
18	Metz	5	0	0	5	-16	-9.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.