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Champions League
Referee: D Massa
Arsenal
S S S S S
4–0
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,0
3,8
Scored
1,7
2,7
Conceded
0,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
2,0
5,5
Scored
2,0
3,5
Conceded
0,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,19 xG 0,67
52% Possession 48%
19 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 1
5 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 4
2 Offside 0
14 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Arsenal Ath Madrid
33′
🟨 José María Giménez
Martín Zubimendi 🟨
38′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Gabriel ⚽
D. Rice
57′
63′
🔁 M. Ruggeri
↦ N. Gonzalez
63′
🔁 C. Gallagher
↦ Koke
63′
🔁 A. Baena
↦ J. M. Gimenez
2–0 G. Martinelli ⚽
M. Lewis-Skelly
64′
3–0 V. Gyokeres ⚽
E. Eze
67′
4–0 V. Gyokeres ⚽
Gabriel
70′
C. Mosquera 🔁
↦ Gabriel
72′
C. Norgaard 🔁
↦ M. Zubimendi
72′
E. Nwaneri 🔁
↦ E. Eze
72′
72′
🔁 A. Griezmann
↦ G. Simeone
73′
🔁 T. Almada
↦ A. Sorloth
75′
🟨 Robin Le Normand
B. White 🔁
↦ J. Timber
83′
M. Merino 🔁
↦ V. Gyökeres
83′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-3-3
1 D. Raya G
12 J. Timber D
2 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel D
49 M. Lewis-Skelly D
10 E. Eze M
36 M. Zubimendi M
41 D. Rice M
7 B. Saka F
14 V. Gyökeres F
11 G. Martinelli F
Bench (10)
13 K. Arrizabalaga
35 T. Setford
3 C. Mosquera
4 B. White
5 P. Hincapie
16 C. Norgaard
19 L. Trossard
22 E. Nwaneri
23 M. Merino
33 R. Calafiori

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 M. Llorente D
24 R. Le Normand D
2 J. M. Gimenez D
17 D. Hancko D
20 G. Simeone M
8 P. Barrios M
6 Koke M
23 N. Gonzalez M
19 J. Alvarez F
9 A. Sorloth F
Bench (12)
1 J. Musso
3 M. Ruggeri
4 C. Gallagher
7 A. Griezmann
10 A. Baena
11 T. Almada
12 C. Martin
15 C. Lenglet
16 N. Molina
18 M. Pubill
21 J. Galan
22 G. Raspadori

Coach: Diego Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Massa · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.