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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Derby

S S T U S

1–0

Full-time

Cardiff

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,8

0,3

Conceded

1,5

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,41 xG 0,34

36% Possession 64%

12 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 10. · Cardiff 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	4	4	0	0	+9	+4.3	12
2	Sheffield United	5	3	2	0	+5	+2.3	11
3	Burnley	5	3	1	1	+8	-0.4	10
4	West Brom	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.3	10
5	Watford	4	3	0	1	+4	-0.5	9
6	Oxford	5	3	0	2	+3	-0.3	9
7	Blackburn	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.8	8
8	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+3	+4.8	8
9	Middlesbrough	4	2	1	1	+2	+5.0	7
10	Derby	4	2	0	2	+1	-1.3	6
11	Stoke	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.9	6
12	QPR	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.2	5
13	Norwich	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.6	5
14	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	-2	-0.5	5
15	Swansea	4	1	1	2	+1	-1.9	4
16	Millwall	5	1	1	3	+0	+3.3	4
17	Coventry	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.4	4
18	Luton	5	1	1	3	-4	+1.5	4
19	Portsmouth	4	0	3	1	-2	-5.9	3
20	Hull	5	0	3	2	-4	-0.0	3
21	Sheffield Weds	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.3	3
22	Preston	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.2	3
23	Plymouth	4	0	2	2	-5	-7.4	2
24	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-9	-2.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Oxford	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.6	9
2	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.9	6
3	Watford	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.8	6
4	Derby	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.1	6
5	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.9	6
6	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+5	+0.7	4
7	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.4	4
8	Leeds	3	1	1	1	+1	+4.0	4
9	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
10	Sheffield United	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.5	4
11	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+1	+4.2	4
12	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
13	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	+2	+3.6	3
14	Millwall	3	1	0	2	+1	+3.9	3
15	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.6	3
16	Stoke	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
17	Preston	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.8	3
18	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.3	2
19	Hull	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.9	2
20	Plymouth	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1
21	QPR	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.4	1
22	Portsmouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.6	1
23	Luton	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.5	0
24	Cardiff	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sheffield United	3	2	1	0	+4	-0.2	7
2	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.4	6
3	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+3	-1.1	6
4	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.4	6
5	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.8	4
6	QPR	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.6	4
7	Luton	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
8	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.8	3
9	Watford	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.3	3
10	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.7	3
11	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.3	3
12	Portsmouth	2	0	2	0	+0	-4.3	2
13	Blackburn	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
14	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
15	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
16	Hull	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.9	1
17	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.0	1
18	Plymouth	2	0	1	1	-4	-6.5	1
19	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-5	-0.9	1
20	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.9	0
21	Swansea	2	0	0	2	-2	-4.3	0
22	Derby	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0
23	Preston	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.4	0
24	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-7	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.