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League Cup

Referee: T Nield

Cardiff

T T S T U

3–5

Full-time

Southampton

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,8

1,3

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

2,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

27% Possession 73%

10 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

6 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 4

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Preston	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Leyton Orient	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Coventry	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Bolton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	QPR	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+4	3
16	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
18	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
19	Everton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	Tranmere	2	1	0	1	-1	3
33	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
34	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
35	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	-2	3
36	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-2	3
37	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-3	3
38	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-4	3
39	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
48	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
49	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
77	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
78	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Everton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Preston	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
31	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
45	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
46	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
47	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-5	0
48	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	Preston	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
44	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
45	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
46	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
47	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-4	0
48	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-4	0
49	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-4	0
50	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.