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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Cardiff

S S U S T

2–1

Full-time

Derby

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,2

This season — Championship · 41/43 matches

Win Ø 38%

39%

37%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

51%

Both score Ø 57%

56%

58%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

3 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 7. · Derby 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	43	25	9	9	+35	84
2	West Brom	44	22	16	6	+33	82
3	Fulham	41	21	10	10	+13	73
4	Brentford	40	20	9	11	+37	69
5	Nott'm Forest	43	18	15	10	+12	69
6	Swansea	41	16	15	10	+10	63
7	Cardiff	41	16	15	10	+6	63
8	Preston	43	17	11	15	+4	62
9	Millwall	43	15	17	11	+3	62
10	Derby	43	16	13	14	-1	61
11	Bristol City	43	17	10	16	-4	61
12	Blackburn	43	16	12	15	+4	60
13	Wigan	44	15	12	17	+1	57
14	Reading	44	15	11	18	+5	56
15	Sheffield Weds	43	15	10	18	-5	55
16	QPR	43	15	8	20	-10	53
17	Middlesbrough	44	12	14	18	-12	50
18	Stoke	43	14	7	22	-10	49
19	Birmingham	43	12	13	18	-17	49
20	Huddersfield	43	12	11	20	-16	47
21	Charlton	43	12	10	21	-11	46
22	Hull	44	12	9	23	-26	45
23	Luton	43	12	8	23	-30	44
24	Barnsley	43	10	13	20	-21	43

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	21	13	5	3	+21	44
2	Derby	22	11	8	3	+14	41
3	Fulham	21	13	2	6	+10	41
4	West Brom	22	10	9	3	+17	39
5	Brentford	19	11	5	3	+23	38
6	Preston	22	11	4	7	+8	37
7	Wigan	22	10	6	6	+10	36
8	Blackburn	22	9	9	4	+8	36
9	Cardiff	20	9	8	3	+10	35
10	Nott'm Forest	21	10	4	7	+3	34
11	Stoke	22	10	3	9	+9	33
12	Swansea	21	9	5	7	+6	32
13	Millwall	21	8	8	5	+4	32
14	Charlton	22	8	5	9	+1	29
15	QPR	22	8	5	9	-1	29
16	Bristol City	21	8	5	8	-3	29
17	Luton	21	7	6	8	-5	27
18	Barnsley	22	6	9	7	-5	27
19	Huddersfield	22	7	6	9	-5	27
20	Sheffield Weds	21	7	6	8	-10	27
21	Middlesbrough	22	6	8	8	-7	26
22	Reading	22	7	4	11	-5	25
23	Birmingham	21	6	6	9	-7	24
24	Hull	22	7	3	12	-7	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	22	12	7	3	+16	43
2	Leeds	22	12	4	6	+14	40
3	Nott'm Forest	22	8	11	3	+9	35
4	Fulham	20	8	8	4	+3	32
5	Bristol City	22	9	5	8	-1	32
6	Brentford	21	9	4	8	+14	31
7	Reading	22	8	7	7	+10	31
8	Swansea	20	7	10	3	+4	31
9	Millwall	22	7	9	6	-1	30
10	Sheffield Weds	22	8	4	10	+5	28
11	Cardiff	21	7	7	7	-4	28
12	Preston	21	6	7	8	-4	25
13	Birmingham	22	6	7	9	-10	25
14	Blackburn	21	7	3	11	-4	24
15	Middlesbrough	22	6	6	10	-5	24
16	QPR	21	7	3	11	-9	24
17	Wigan	22	5	6	11	-9	21
18	Hull	22	5	6	11	-19	21
19	Huddersfield	21	5	5	11	-11	20
20	Derby	21	5	5	11	-15	20
21	Charlton	21	4	5	12	-12	17
22	Luton	22	5	2	15	-25	17
23	Barnsley	21	4	4	13	-16	16
24	Stoke	21	4	4	13	-19	16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.