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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Liverpool

U S S S S

0–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

2,7

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

0,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,94 xG 0,44

69% Possession 31%

14 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 2

0 Offside 5

15 Free kicks against 6

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 2. · Nott'm Forest 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.1	9
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	+4.9	9
3	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
4	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.6	7
5	Newcastle	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.5	7
6	Brentford	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.7	6
7	Man United	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.5	6
8	Aston Villa	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.1	6
9	Bournemouth	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.7	5
10	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.7	5
11	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+3	+1.0	4
12	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.8	4
13	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
14	West Ham	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.8	3
15	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.4	1
16	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.3	1
17	Ipswich	3	0	1	2	-5	-5.8	1
18	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-6	-0.8	1
19	Southampton	4	0	0	4	-7	-3.5	0
20	Everton	3	0	0	3	-8	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
2	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+2	-1.0	6
3	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.0	4
4	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.4	3
5	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.0	3
6	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.3	3
7	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
8	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
9	Man United	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.6	3
10	Nott'm Forest	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
11	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
12	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
13	Chelsea	2	0	1	1	-2	+2.1	1
14	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
15	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.0	0
16	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
17	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.8	0
18	Everton	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.2	0
19	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-4	+0.3	0
20	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.6	6
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.0	6
3	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.7	6
4	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.7	4
5	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
6	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+4	-0.3	3
7	Man United	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.9	3
8	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.0	3
9	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
10	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
11	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
12	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.4	1
13	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.2	1
14	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.5	1
15	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.1	1
16	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
17	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.3	0
18	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.0	0
19	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.3	0
20	Everton	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.