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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Derby

T S T T U

1–1

Full-time

Cardiff

T U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

14%

29%

Points per game

0,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 22%

29%

14%

Both score Ø 36%

29%

43%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

0,4

0,9

Conceded

1,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

15 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 23. · Cardiff 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	8	7	1	0	+12	22
2	Swansea	8	4	3	1	+5	15
3	Millwall	8	4	3	1	+5	15
4	Watford	8	4	3	1	+4	15
5	Bristol City	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Norwich	8	4	2	2	+2	14
7	Bournemouth	7	3	4	0	+4	13
8	Middlesbrough	8	3	4	1	+3	13
9	Stoke	8	3	3	2	+0	12
10	Luton	7	4	0	3	+0	12
11	Brentford	8	3	2	3	+2	11
12	Blackburn	8	3	1	4	+7	10
13	Preston	8	3	1	4	+0	10
14	Huddersfield	7	3	1	3	-2	10
15	Cardiff	7	2	3	2	+0	9
16	Sheffield Weds	7	2	2	3	-1	8
17	Barnsley	8	1	4	3	-1	7
18	Birmingham	7	1	4	2	-1	7
19	QPR	8	1	4	3	-4	7
20	Rotherham	7	1	3	3	-4	6
21	Nott'm Forest	7	1	2	4	-5	5
22	Coventry	8	1	2	5	-10	5
23	Derby	7	1	1	5	-8	4
24	Wycombe	8	0	1	7	-13	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Watford	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Middlesbrough	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Brentford	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Swansea	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Bournemouth	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	Norwich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Millwall	4	1	3	0	+2	6
10	Luton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Huddersfield	4	2	0	2	+0	6
12	Barnsley	4	1	2	1	+2	5
13	QPR	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Stoke	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Blackburn	4	1	1	2	+2	4
16	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Coventry	4	1	1	2	-5	4
18	Sheffield Weds	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Nott'm Forest	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Cardiff	4	0	2	2	-3	2
21	Rotherham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Wycombe	4	0	1	3	-4	1
23	Preston	4	0	0	4	-5	0
24	Derby	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Reading	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Millwall	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Cardiff	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Norwich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	+5	6
10	Bournemouth	4	1	3	0	+2	6
11	Sheffield Weds	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Luton	4	2	0	2	-1	6
13	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Watford	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Rotherham	4	1	2	1	-2	5
16	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Derby	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	Huddersfield	3	1	1	1	-2	4
19	Birmingham	4	0	3	1	-1	3
20	Nott'm Forest	3	1	0	2	-2	3
21	Barnsley	4	0	2	2	-3	2
22	QPR	4	0	2	2	-4	2
23	Coventry	4	0	1	3	-5	1
24	Wycombe	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.