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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

AVS

S U T S T

1–0

Full-time

Rio Ave

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AVS Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,62 xG 0,92

38% Possession 62%

11 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 11

4 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AVS 13. · Rio Ave 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+17	+13.6	15
2	Porto	4	3	0	1	+5	+4.6	9
3	Famalicao	4	3	0	1	+5	+1.2	9
4	Santa Clara	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.3	9
5	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+2	+4.2	9
6	Sp Braga	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.3	8
7	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.1	7
8	Moreirense	5	2	1	2	-1	+1.5	7
9	Rio Ave	4	2	0	2	-2	-4.5	6
10	Casa Pia	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.1	6
11	Gil Vicente	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.6	5
12	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.6	4
13	AVS	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.5	4
14	Nacional	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.1	4
15	Arouca	5	1	0	4	-6	-5.6	3
16	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-4	-6.2	2
17	Estrela	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.4	1
18	Farense	4	0	0	4	-9	-6.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+6.7	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+4	+5.0	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.5	6
4	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.1	6
5	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.7	6
6	Rio Ave	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.4	6
7	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.0	4
8	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.3	4
9	Moreirense	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.3	4
10	AVS	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
11	Casa Pia	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.1	3
12	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.8	3
13	Nacional	2	1	0	1	-3	-0.6	3
14	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.6	3
15	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
16	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.4	1
17	Estrela	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.4	0
18	Farense	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+13	+8.5	9
2	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.5	6
3	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
4	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.1	3
5	Porto	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.1	3
6	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
7	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
8	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.1	3
9	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.2	3
10	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
11	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
12	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.9	1
13	Benfica	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
14	Gil Vicente	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.6	1
15	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.1	0
16	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.0	0
17	Farense	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.1	0
18	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-4	-5.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.