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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Spezia

T T U S T

1–2

Full-time

Fiorentina

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,2

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 18%

18%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

55%

36%

Both score Ø 41%

36%

45%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 27

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 14

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 14

5 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 16. · Fiorentina 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	2	0	+21	32
2	Atalanta	12	8	3	1	+10	27
3	Milan	11	8	2	1	+13	26
4	Lazio	11	7	3	1	+18	24
5	Inter	12	8	0	4	+8	24
6	Juventus	12	6	4	2	+11	22
7	Roma	11	7	1	3	+3	22
8	Udinese	11	6	3	2	+8	21
9	Sassuolo	12	4	3	5	-3	15
10	Torino	11	4	2	5	-3	14
11	Salernitana	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Empoli	12	2	5	5	-8	11
13	Bologna	11	2	4	5	-5	10
14	Fiorentina	11	2	4	5	-5	10
15	Monza	11	3	1	7	-9	10
16	Spezia	11	2	3	6	-11	9
17	Lecce	12	1	5	6	-6	8
18	Sampdoria	12	1	3	8	-15	6
19	Verona	11	1	2	8	-11	5
20	Cremonese	11	0	4	7	-13	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Inter	6	5	0	1	+10	15
3	Milan	6	5	0	1	+9	15
4	Juventus	6	4	2	0	+12	14
5	Lazio	6	4	1	1	+8	13
6	Udinese	6	3	2	1	+6	11
7	Atalanta	6	3	2	1	+2	11
8	Sassuolo	6	3	1	2	+4	10
9	Salernitana	6	3	1	2	+4	10
10	Roma	5	3	0	2	+3	9
11	Spezia	5	2	3	0	+2	9
12	Bologna	6	2	3	1	+2	9
13	Fiorentina	6	2	2	2	-2	8
14	Monza	5	2	0	3	-1	6
15	Torino	5	1	2	2	-1	5
16	Empoli	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Lecce	6	0	4	2	-2	4
18	Verona	5	1	0	4	-5	3
19	Sampdoria	6	0	2	4	-7	2
20	Cremonese	5	0	1	4	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Atalanta	6	5	1	0	+8	16
3	Roma	6	4	1	1	+0	13
4	Lazio	5	3	2	0	+10	11
5	Milan	5	3	2	0	+4	11
6	Udinese	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Inter	6	3	0	3	-2	9
8	Torino	6	3	0	3	-2	9
9	Juventus	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Empoli	6	1	3	2	-4	6
11	Sassuolo	6	1	2	3	-7	5
12	Lecce	6	1	1	4	-4	4
13	Monza	6	1	1	4	-8	4
14	Sampdoria	6	1	1	4	-8	4
15	Cremonese	6	0	3	3	-4	3
16	Salernitana	5	0	3	2	-7	3
17	Fiorentina	5	0	2	3	-3	2
18	Verona	6	0	2	4	-6	2
19	Bologna	5	0	1	4	-7	1
20	Spezia	6	0	0	6	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.