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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Arsenal

S S S U T

5–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 11/12 matches

Win Ø 50%

82%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

73%

33%

Both score Ø 49%

64%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,6

Scored

2,3

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

69% Possession 31%

24 Shots 5

10 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 2. · Nott'm Forest 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+26	29
2	Arsenal	11	9	1	1	+14	28
3	Tottenham	13	8	2	3	+10	26
4	Newcastle	13	6	6	1	+14	24
5	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+2	21
6	Man United	11	6	2	3	+0	20
7	Fulham	13	5	4	4	+0	19
8	Brighton	12	5	3	4	+4	18
9	Liverpool	12	4	4	4	+8	16
10	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	Brentford	13	3	6	4	-3	15
12	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-1	14
13	Everton	13	3	5	5	-1	14
14	Bournemouth	13	3	4	6	-16	13
15	Leeds	12	3	3	6	-4	12
16	Southampton	13	3	3	7	-9	12
17	Aston Villa	13	3	3	7	-9	12
18	Leicester	13	3	2	8	-4	11
19	Wolves	13	2	4	7	-13	10
20	Nott'm Forest	12	2	3	7	-15	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+21	18
2	Newcastle	7	4	3	0	+11	15
3	Tottenham	6	5	0	1	+10	15
4	Arsenal	5	5	0	0	+7	15
5	Liverpool	7	4	2	1	+11	14
6	Crystal Palace	7	4	1	2	+2	13
7	Brentford	7	3	3	1	+6	12
8	Fulham	7	3	3	1	+2	12
9	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+6	11
10	Chelsea	5	3	2	0	+5	11
11	Man United	5	3	1	1	+4	10
12	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	+3	10
13	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+2	10
14	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+3	8
15	Leeds	6	2	2	2	+2	8
16	Everton	6	2	2	2	+2	8
17	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-2	8
18	Wolves	6	2	2	2	-5	8
19	Nott'm Forest	6	2	1	3	-2	7
20	Southampton	6	1	3	2	-1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+7	13
2	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
3	Tottenham	7	3	2	2	+0	11
4	Chelsea	7	3	1	3	-3	10
5	Man United	6	3	1	2	-4	10
6	Newcastle	6	2	3	1	+3	9
7	Brighton	6	2	1	3	-2	7
8	Fulham	6	2	1	3	-2	7
9	Everton	7	1	3	3	-3	6
10	Southampton	7	2	0	5	-8	6
11	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-14	5
12	West Ham	6	1	1	4	-3	4
13	Leeds	6	1	1	4	-6	4
14	Crystal Palace	5	0	3	2	-5	3
15	Leicester	6	1	0	5	-7	3
16	Brentford	6	0	3	3	-9	3
17	Liverpool	5	0	2	3	-3	2
18	Wolves	7	0	2	5	-8	2
19	Aston Villa	7	0	2	5	-12	2
20	Nott'm Forest	6	0	2	4	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.