Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Malmo FF
|
25 | 14 | 8 | 3 | +26 | 50 |
| 2 |
Elfsborg
|
26 | 10 | 13 | 3 | +8 | 43 |
| 3 |
Djurgarden
|
25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | +14 | 42 |
| 4 |
Norrkoping
|
26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | +13 | 40 |
| 5 |
Hacken
|
25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +12 | 40 |
| 6 |
Hammarby
|
25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | +5 | 39 |
| 7 |
Sirius
|
26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | -1 | 37 |
| 8 |
Mjallby
|
26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 35 |
| 9 | Orebro | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 33 |
| 10 | Ostersunds | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | -6 | 33 |
| 11 |
AIK
|
25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 32 |
| 12 |
Varberg
|
25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -5 | 28 |
| 13 |
Goteborg
|
25 | 4 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 24 |
| 14 |
Helsingborg
|
25 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -13 | 22 |
| 15 |
Kalmar
|
26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -18 | 21 |
| 16 | Falkenbergs | 25 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -16 | 20 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Kalmar
Hacken
Hammarby
Sirius
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.