Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Almeria
Girona
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Espanol
|
9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 20 |
| 2 |
Mallorca
|
10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +7 | 19 |
| 3 |
Sp Gijon
|
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |
Leganes
|
10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 18 |
| 5 |
Vallecano
|
10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |
Lugo
|
10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 |
Cartagena
|
10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |
Fuenlabrada
|
10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 |
Malaga
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 |
Mirandes
|
10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +0 | 13 |
| 11 |
Las Palmas
|
10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 |
Ponferradina
|
9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 |
Girona
|
7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 |
Almeria
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 15 |
Oviedo
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 |
Tenerife
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 |
Albacete
|
10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 |
Castellon
|
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 19 | Logrones | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 |
Zaragoza
|
8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 21 |
Sabadell
|
8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 22 |
Alcorcon
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Castellon
Almeria
Almeria
Fuenlabrada
Almeria
Cartagena
Las Palmas
Almeria
Almeria
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.