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Serie A

Referee: R Abisso

Spezia

T S T U U

1–4

Full-time

Juventus

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Juventus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 5/4 matches

Win Ø 23%

20%

25%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

80%

50%

Both score Ø 68%

60%

75%

Average goals

3,6

2,8

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

44% Possession 56%

11 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

3 Offside 5

14 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 15. · Juventus 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+12	12
3	Atalanta	6	4	0	2	+4	12
4	Sassuolo	5	3	2	0	+7	11
5	Inter	6	3	2	1	+5	11
6	Sampdoria	5	3	0	2	+2	9
7	Verona	5	2	2	1	+3	8
8	Roma	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Fiorentina	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Cagliari	6	2	1	3	-3	7
11	Lazio	5	2	1	2	-3	7
12	Juventus	4	1	3	0	+3	6
13	Bologna	6	2	0	4	-1	6
14	Benevento	5	2	0	3	-5	6
15	Spezia	5	1	2	2	-4	5
16	Parma	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-5	4
18	Udinese	6	1	0	5	-5	3
19	Torino	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Crotone	6	0	1	5	-11	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Verona	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+9	6
4	Bologna	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	Fiorentina	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Sassuolo	3	1	2	0	+3	5
7	Roma	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Inter	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Parma	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Lazio	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+2	3
13	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Udinese	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Benevento	3	1	0	2	-3	3
18	Spezia	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Crotone	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Torino	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Atalanta	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Inter	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Sassuolo	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Sampdoria	3	2	0	1	+0	6
7	Spezia	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Roma	3	1	1	1	-2	4
9	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-3	4
10	Lazio	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Benevento	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Juventus	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Torino	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Verona	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Parma	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-6	1
18	Udinese	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Bologna	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Crotone	3	0	0	3	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.