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Taça de Portugal
1–2
Full-time
Estoril
T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

CF Os Belenenses Estoril
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,7
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Lusitano Évora 1911 3 3 0 0 +10 9
2 Caldas 3 3 0 0 +8 9
3 Vila Meã 3 3 0 0 +7 9
4 Comércio Indústria 3 3 0 0 +6 9
5 Espinho 3 2 1 0 +5 7
6 Mortágua 3 2 1 0 +3 7
7 1º Dezembro 3 2 1 0 +2 7
8 Alpendorada 2 2 0 0 +8 6
9 Lusitânia Lourosa 2 2 0 0 +7 6
10 Farense 2 2 0 0 +5 6
11 CD Olivais e Moscavide 3 2 0 1 +4 6
12 Academico Viseu 2 2 0 0 +4 6
13 CF Os Belenenses 2 2 0 0 +3 6
14 Atlético CP 2 2 0 0 +3 6
15 Sintrense 2 2 0 0 +2 6
16 Amarante 3 2 0 1 +2 6
17 Silves 2 2 0 0 +2 6
18 Leixoes 2 2 0 0 +2 6
19 Fafe 2 2 0 0 +2 6
20 Vianense 3 2 0 1 +1 6
21 Vila Caíz 3 2 0 1 +1 6
22 Vila Real 3 2 0 1 -1 6
23 AD Marco 09 3 2 0 1 -1 6
24 Celoricense 3 2 0 1 -2 6
25 Marinhense 3 1 2 0 +6 5
26 Anadia 3 1 2 0 +1 5
27 Ovarense 2 1 1 0 +6 4
28 Benfica Castelo Branco 2 1 1 0 +6 4
29 Moncarapachense 2 1 1 0 +3 4
30 União de Leiria 2 1 1 0 +2 4
31 Gouveia 2 1 1 0 +2 4
32 Torreense 2 1 1 0 +2 4
33 Oliveirense 2 1 1 0 +2 4
34 SC Covilha 2 1 1 0 +1 4
35 Os Marialvas 2 1 1 0 +1 4
36 Peniche 2 1 0 1 +7 3
37 AVS 1 1 0 0 +7 3
38 Sacavenense 2 1 0 1 +5 3
39 Atlético Malveira 2 1 0 1 +5 3
40 Louletano 2 1 0 1 +4 3
41 Bragança 2 1 0 1 +4 3
42 Tondela 1 1 0 0 +4 3
43 Porto 1 1 0 0 +4 3
44 Trofense 2 1 0 1 +3 3
45 Famalicao 1 1 0 0 +3 3
46 Casa Pia 1 1 0 0 +3 3
47 Felgueiras 1932 2 1 0 1 +2 3
48 O Elvas 2 1 0 1 +2 3
49 Nacional 1 1 0 0 +2 3
50 FC Serpa 2 1 0 1 +2 3
51 Naval 1893 2 1 0 1 +2 3
52 Benfica 1 1 0 0 +2 3
53 São João Ver 2 1 0 1 +1 3
54 Sp Lisbon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
55 Arouca 1 1 0 0 +1 3
56 Rebordosa 2 1 0 1 +1 3
57 Sp Braga 1 1 0 0 +1 3
58 Guimaraes 1 1 0 0 +1 3
59 Salgueiros 2 1 0 1 +0 3
60 Portimonense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
61 Pacos Ferreira 2 1 0 1 +0 3
62 Correlhã 2 1 0 1 +0 3
63 Chaves 2 1 0 1 +0 3
64 Oriental Lisboa 2 1 0 1 +0 3
65 Mirandela 2 1 0 1 +0 3
66 União Lamas 2 1 0 1 +0 3
67 Uniao Nogueirense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
68 Nazarenos 2 1 0 1 +0 3
69 Ançã 2 1 0 1 -1 3
70 Monção 2 1 0 1 -1 3
71 Machico 2 1 0 1 -1 3
72 Resende 2 1 0 1 -1 3
73 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2 1 0 1 -3 3
74 Brito 2 1 0 1 -4 3
75 Castrense 2 1 0 1 -4 3
76 AD Fornos Algodres 2 1 0 1 -5 3
77 Alverca 1 0 1 0 +0 1
78 Samora Correir 1 0 1 0 +0 1
79 Penafiel 1 0 1 0 +0 1
80 Olímpico do Montijo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
81 Santa Clara 1 0 1 0 +0 1
82 Rebordelo 2 0 1 1 -2 1
83 Portimonense B 2 0 1 1 -2 1
84 Charneca Caparica 2 0 1 1 -2 1
85 Rio Ave 1 0 0 1 -1 0
86 Oliveira Hospital 1 0 0 1 -1 0
87 Eléctrico 1 0 0 1 -1 0
88 Camacha 1 0 0 1 -1 0
89 Gil Vicente 1 0 0 1 -1 0
90 Maria da Fonte 1 0 0 1 -1 0
91 Alcochetense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
92 Vizela 1 0 0 1 -1 0
93 Fazendense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
94 Tirsense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
95 Lagoa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
96 AR São Martinho 1 0 0 1 -1 0
97 Castro Daire 1 0 0 1 -1 0
98 Vitória de Sernache 1 0 0 1 -1 0
99 Carregal 1 0 0 1 -1 0
100 Academica 1 0 0 1 -1 0
101 Juventude Évora 1 0 0 1 -1 0
102 Moreirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
103 Feirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
104 Vilaverdense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
105 Quarteirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
106 Amora 1 0 0 1 -1 0
107 Ribeira Brava 1 0 0 1 -1 0
108 Florgrade 1 0 0 1 -1 0
109 Cinfães 1 0 0 1 -1 0
110 Mafra 1 0 0 1 -1 0
111 Celeirós 1 0 0 1 -1 0
112 Sourense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
113 Águias do Moradal 1 0 0 1 -1 0
114 Pontassolense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
115 Beira-Mar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
116 Estrela 1 0 0 1 -2 0
117 Aparecida GO 1 0 0 1 -2 0
118 Vinhais 1 0 0 1 -2 0
119 Leça 1 0 0 1 -2 0
120 União Santarém 1 0 0 1 -2 0
121 Paredes 1 0 0 1 -2 0
122 Maritimo 1 0 0 1 -2 0
123 UD da Serra 1 0 0 1 -2 0
124 Valpaços 1 0 0 1 -2 0
125 Vidago 1 0 0 1 -2 0
126 Valenciano 1 0 0 1 -3 0
127 Lusitânia 1 0 0 1 -3 0
128 Viana Alentejo 1 0 0 1 -3 0
129 Portel 1 0 0 1 -3 0
130 Fátima 1 0 0 1 -3 0
131 Académico do Fundão 1 0 0 1 -3 0
132 Portalegrense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
133 Varzim 1 0 0 1 -4 0
134 Almodôvar 1 0 0 1 -4 0
135 Sanjoanense 1 0 0 1 -4 0
136 AD Portomosense 1 0 0 1 -4 0
137 Os Limianos 1 0 0 1 -4 0
138 Operário 1 0 0 1 -5 0
139 Fayal 1 0 0 1 -5 0
140 Angrense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
141 Estrela Calheta 1 0 0 1 -6 0
142 SC Celoricense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
143 Mosteirense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
144 Urzelinense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
145 Lajense 2 0 0 2 -7 0
146 Rabo Peixe 1 0 0 1 -7 0
147 Ferreira Zêzere 1 0 0 1 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

CF Os Belenenses Estoril
Eduardo Souza 🟨
19′
27′
Pizzi 0–1
Half-time 0–1
46′
🟨 Jordan Holsgrove
46′
🔁 K. Boma
↦ Ferro
Tiago Morgado 🟨
47′
1–1 E. Souza
51′
60′
🔁 P. Carvalho
↦ F. Garcia
60′
🔁 N. Lominadze
↦ T. Brito
60′
🔁 Y. Begraoui
↦ Pizzi
David Rebelo 🔁
↦ M. Sambu
67′
67′
🔁 Peixinho
↦ A. Tsoungui
W. Eduardo 🔁
↦ D. Horta Leitao
75′
J. Paredes 🔁
↦ E. Souza
75′
Diogo Paulo 🟨
85′
Jorge Teixeira 🟨
89′
90′
A. Lacximicant 1–2
J. Machado 🔁
↦ D. Paulo
91′
A. Afonso 🔁
↦ E. Barros
91′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

CF Os Belenenses

28 G. Pinto
66 Cesinha
5 J. Teixeira
4 Nuno Tomas
22 M. Bandarra
20 D. Paulo
21 T. Morgado
27 E. Barros
10 M. Sambu
16 E. Souza
17 D. Horta Leitao
Bench (9)
99 G. Oliveira
2 J. Machado
39 A. Pinto
13 Cuca
14 A. Afonso
19 A. Valente
7 W. Eduardo
9 J. Paredes
31 David Rebelo

Estoril

16 M. Turk
5 A. Tsoungui
25 F. Bacher
4 Ferro
17 F. Garcia
10 J. Holsgrove
90 T. Brito
20 G. Costa
12 J. Carvalho
19 A. Lacximicant
21 Pizzi
Bench (9)
1 J. Robles
22 P. Carvalho
44 K. Boma
55 T. Parente
7 N. Lominadze
6 Jandro
70 Peixinho
9 A. Marques
14 Y. Begraoui

Coach: Ian Cathro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.