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2. Bundesliga

Referee: Michael Bacher

Holstein Kiel

T S S T S

3–0

Full-time

Karlsruhe

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Karlsruhe

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

40%

60%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,2

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

46% Possession 54%

11 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 15

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 13. · Karlsruhe 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elversberg	6	4	1	1	+5	-2.9	13
2	Kaiserslautern	6	4	0	2	+7	-0.2	12
3	Hannover	5	4	0	1	+3	+2.5	12
4	Schalke 04	6	4	0	2	+3	+0.8	12
5	Karlsruhe	5	3	2	0	+4	+0.3	11
6	Paderborn	6	3	2	1	+3	+2.8	11
7	Bielefeld	6	3	1	2	+5	+1.7	10
8	Darmstadt	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.9	10
9	Greuther Furth	6	3	0	3	-2	-0.2	9
10	Preußen Münster	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.5	7
11	Braunschweig	6	2	1	3	-4	-1.1	7
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	2	1	2	-4	-3.5	7
13	Holstein Kiel	5	2	0	3	-1	+0.1	6
14	Hertha	6	1	2	3	-2	-1.9	5
15	Dresden	5	1	1	3	-2	+1.8	4
16	Nurnberg	6	1	1	4	-3	+0.1	4
17	Bochum	6	1	0	5	-5	+1.8	3
18	Magdeburg	6	1	0	5	-7	-0.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Kaiserslautern	3	3	0	0	+6	+1.0	9
2	Karlsruhe	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.1	9
3	Darmstadt	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.6	7
4	Elversberg	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.4	7
5	Bielefeld	4	2	0	2	+3	+2.2	6
6	Paderborn	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.4	6
7	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.7	6
8	Hannover	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.2	6
9	Preußen Münster	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.4	4
10	Nurnberg	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.4	4
11	Braunschweig	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.3	4
12	Bochum	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.4	3
13	Greuther Furth	3	1	0	2	-4	+0.1	3
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.3	1
15	Hertha	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.2	1
16	Dresden	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.8	0
17	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.5	0
18	Magdeburg	3	0	0	3	-4	+1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elversberg	3	2	0	1	+3	-2.4	6
2	Hannover	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.3	6
3	Greuther Furth	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.3	6
4	Holstein Kiel	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.4	6
5	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+2	-1.0	6
6	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	2	0	1	-2	-2.2	6
7	Paderborn	3	1	2	0	+2	+2.4	5
8	Hertha	3	1	1	1	+2	-1.7	4
9	Bielefeld	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.5	4
10	Dresden	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.1	4
11	Kaiserslautern	3	1	0	2	+1	-1.2	3
12	Darmstadt	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.4	3
13	Braunschweig	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.3	3
14	Preußen Münster	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.1	3
15	Magdeburg	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.8	3
16	Karlsruhe	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
17	Nurnberg	3	0	0	3	-3	+0.4	0
18	Bochum	4	0	0	4	-6	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.