Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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São João Ver
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Caldas
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 |
CF Os Belenenses
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 |
AD Marco 09
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 4 |
Ovarense
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 4 |
| 5 |
Peniche
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 3 |
| 6 |
Sacavenense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 3 |
| 7 |
Lusitano Évora 1911
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 3 |
| 8 |
Atlético Malveira
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 3 |
| 9 |
Lusitânia Lourosa
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 10 |
CD Olivais e Moscavide
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 11 |
Trofense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 12 |
Felgueiras 1932
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 13 |
Vianense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 14 |
Moncarapachense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 15 |
FC Serpa
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 16 |
Naval 1893
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 17 |
Salgueiros
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Gouveia
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 19 |
O Elvas
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 20 |
Vila Meã
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 21 |
Rebordosa
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 22 |
Chaves
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 23 |
Correlhã
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 24 |
Farense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 25 |
Vila Real
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 26 |
Brito
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 27 |
Oriental Lisboa
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 28 |
Sintrense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 29 |
Amarante
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 30 |
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 31 |
Machico
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 32 |
Anadia
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 33 |
Portimonense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 34 |
Mortágua
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 35 |
Os Marialvas
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 36 |
Comércio Indústria
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 37 |
Monção
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 38 |
1º Dezembro
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 39 |
Vila Caíz
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 40 |
Espinho
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 41 |
Celoricense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 42 |
Nazarenos
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 43 |
Castrense
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 44 |
SC Covilha
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 45 |
Marinhense
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 46 |
Samora Correir
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 47 |
Charneca Caparica
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 48 |
Olímpico do Montijo
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 49 |
Camacha
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 50 |
Maria da Fonte
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 51 |
Alcochetense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 52 |
Vizela
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 53 |
Tirsense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 54 |
Lagoa
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 55 |
AR São Martinho
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 56 |
Castro Daire
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 57 |
Vitória de Sernache
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 58 |
Carregal
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 59 |
Academica
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 60 |
Juventude Évora
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 61 |
Vilaverdense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 62 |
Quarteirense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 63 |
Amora
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 64 |
Ribeira Brava
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 65 |
Florgrade
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 66 |
Cinfães
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 67 |
Celeirós
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 68 |
Sourense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 69 |
Pontassolense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 70 |
Beira-Mar
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 71 |
Aparecida GO
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 72 |
Leça
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 73 |
Paredes
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 74 |
Maritimo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 75 |
Valpaços
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 76 |
Vidago
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 77 |
Valenciano
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 78 |
Lusitânia
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 79 |
Viana Alentejo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 80 |
Portel
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 81 |
Fátima
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 82 |
Académico do Fundão
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 83 |
Varzim
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 84 |
Sanjoanense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 85 |
AD Portomosense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 86 |
Fayal
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 87 |
SC Celoricense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 88 |
Urzelinense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 89 |
Lajense
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
| 90 |
Rabo Peixe
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
| 91 |
Ferreira Zêzere
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Coach: Pedro Lomba
Coach: Ricardo Vargas
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Rio Ave
São João Ver
Oliveira Hospital
São João Ver
Lusitânia
São João Ver
São João Ver
Paredes
São João Ver
FC Serpa
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.