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Eredivisie

Referee: Jannick van der Laan

Heerenveen

U T T U T

3–2

Full-time

Nijmegen

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

5,2

Scored

1,0

3,2

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

60%

Points per game

0,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

60%

100%

Both score Ø 70%

80%

60%

Average goals

2,6

5,2

Scored

1,0

3,4

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,81 xG 0,94

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Heerenveen 17. · Nijmegen 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	5	5	0	0	+10	+7.2	15
2	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	0	1	+9	+3.0	12
3	Groningen	6	4	0	2	+3	+0.2	12
4	Ajax	5	3	2	0	+6	+6.7	11
5	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.3	10
6	For Sittard	6	3	1	2	+1	-2.9	10
7	Nijmegen	5	3	0	2	+8	+7.2	9
8	Utrecht	6	3	0	3	+6	+1.3	9
9	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.5	9
10	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	0	3	-8	-4.7	9
11	Twente	6	2	1	3	+1	+4.3	7
12	NAC Breda	6	2	1	3	-4	-5.6	7
13	Zwolle	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.5	6
14	Excelsior	6	2	0	4	-8	-5.3	6
15	Volendam	6	0	4	2	-4	-4.8	4
16	Telstar	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.2	4
17	Heerenveen	5	0	2	3	-3	+4.3	2
18	Heracles	6	0	0	6	-15	-10.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Groningen	3	3	0	0	+7	+0.9	9
2	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.0	9
3	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.8	9
4	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.8	7
5	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+6	+5.0	6
6	Utrecht	3	2	0	1	+6	+1.5	6
7	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.9	6
8	NAC Breda	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
9	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.6	4
10	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
11	Excelsior	3	1	0	2	-1	-3.6	3
12	Zwolle	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.0	3
13	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	0	2	-7	-3.4	3
14	Heerenveen	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.7	2
15	Volendam	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.9	2
16	Twente	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.8	1
17	Telstar	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.4	1
18	Heracles	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.2	7
2	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.4	6
3	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.0	6
4	Twente	4	2	0	2	+3	+3.5	6
5	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	-1	-1.4	6
6	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	2	0	+2	-1.1	5
7	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.3	3
8	Utrecht	3	1	0	2	+0	-0.1	3
9	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
10	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-1	-3.7	3
11	Telstar	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.6	3
12	Groningen	3	1	0	2	-4	-0.8	3
13	Excelsior	3	1	0	2	-7	-1.6	3
14	Ajax	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.7	2
15	Volendam	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.9	2
16	NAC Breda	3	0	1	2	-5	-7.5	1
17	Heerenveen	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.6	0
18	Heracles	4	0	0	4	-11	-6.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.