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La Liga

Referee: Miguel Sesma Espinosa

Elche

S U U S U

1–0

Full-time

Oviedo

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elche Oviedo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

75%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,3

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,55 xG 1,09

61% Possession 39%

15 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Elche 11. · Oviedo 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	5	0	0	+8	+5.0	15
2	Barcelona	4	3	1	0	+10	+5.5	10
3	Villarreal	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.5	10
4	Espanol	5	3	1	1	+1	+0.7	10
5	Betis	6	2	3	1	+2	+4.0	9
6	Getafe	4	3	0	1	+2	+0.7	9
7	Ath Bilbao	5	3	0	2	+0	+3.2	9
8	Sevilla	5	2	1	2	+1	-4.0	7
9	Alaves	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.1	7
10	Valencia	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.2	7
11	Elche	4	1	3	0	+2	-1.7	6
12	Ath Madrid	5	1	3	1	+1	+2.8	6
13	Osasuna	5	2	0	3	+0	-0.9	6
14	Vallecano	5	1	2	2	-1	+1.4	5
15	Celta	6	0	5	1	-2	+1.4	5
16	Levante	5	1	1	3	+0	+0.7	4
17	Oviedo	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.6	3
18	Sociedad	5	0	2	3	-4	-3.1	2
19	Mallorca	5	0	2	3	-5	-5.0	2
20	Girona	5	0	1	4	-13	-8.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Villarreal	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.4	9
2	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.6	9
3	Espanol	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.2	9
4	Valencia	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.1	7
5	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.9	6
6	Betis	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.9	6
7	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+1	+4.1	6
8	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.1	4
9	Elche	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.1	4
10	Alaves	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.7	4
11	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+6	+3.8	3
12	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
13	Celta	4	0	3	1	-2	+1.6	3
14	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.8	3
15	Vallecano	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
16	Mallorca	3	0	2	1	-3	-3.6	2
17	Levante	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
18	Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1
19	Sevilla	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
20	Girona	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.7	7
2	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.4	6
3	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+2	-3.2	6
4	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.4	6
5	Levante	3	1	0	2	+1	+1.9	3
6	Betis	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.1	3
7	Alaves	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.8	3
8	Vallecano	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.2	3
9	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.9	3
10	Elche	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
11	Celta	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
12	Ath Madrid	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.7	2
13	Espanol	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
14	Villarreal	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
15	Sociedad	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.2	1
16	Girona	2	0	1	1	-5	-4.0	1
17	Mallorca	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.3	0
18	Osasuna	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.9	0
19	Oviedo	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
20	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-7	-4.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.