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Süper Lig

Referee: Cagdas Altay

Samsunspor

T U U T U

3–2

Full-time

Karagumruk

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Samsunspor Karagumruk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Süper Lig · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,6

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 40%

60%

20%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,4

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,91 xG 0,58

49% Possession 51%

14 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Samsunspor 8. · Karagumruk 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	5	5	0	0	+14	+10.4	15
2	Goztep	6	3	3	0	+8	+2.0	12
3	Fenerbahce	5	3	2	0	+5	+9.0	11
4	Trabzonspor	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.1	11
5	Antalyaspor	6	3	1	2	+1	-1.6	10
6	Gaziantep	6	3	1	2	-2	-2.8	10
7	Alanyaspor	6	2	3	1	+2	-3.5	9
8	Samsunspor	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.4	8
9	Konyaspor	4	2	1	1	+5	-0.2	7
10	Buyuksehyr	5	1	3	1	+1	-0.8	6
11	Besiktas	4	2	0	2	-3	+2.0	6
12	Rizespor	5	1	2	2	-4	-0.5	5
13	Kasimpasa	5	1	1	3	-2	-1.1	4
14	Kayserispor	5	0	4	1	-4	-3.5	4
15	Eyüpspor	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.3	4
16	Genclerbirligi	6	1	0	5	-5	-2.9	3
17	Karagumruk	5	1	0	4	-7	-2.7	3
18	Kocaelispor	6	0	2	4	-6	-1.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Trabzonspor	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.3	8
2	Fenerbahce	3	2	1	0	+3	+7.1	7
3	Galatasaray	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.4	6
4	Besiktas	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.7	6
5	Gaziantep	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.0	6
6	Goztep	3	1	2	0	+3	+1.4	5
7	Alanyaspor	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.8	4
8	Antalyaspor	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.2	4
9	Samsunspor	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
10	Konyaspor	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.0	3
11	Buyuksehyr	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
12	Genclerbirligi	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.1	3
13	Rizespor	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.5	3
14	Eyüpspor	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.7	3
15	Kocaelispor	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
16	Kayserispor	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.7	1
17	Kasimpasa	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.3	0
18	Karagumruk	3	0	0	3	-5	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	3	3	0	0	+9	+7.0	9
2	Goztep	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.6	7
3	Antalyaspor	3	2	0	1	+1	-1.8	6
4	Alanyaspor	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.7	5
5	Konyaspor	2	1	1	0	+3	-1.2	4
6	Fenerbahce	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.8	4
7	Samsunspor	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.4	4
8	Kasimpasa	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.4	4
9	Gaziantep	3	1	1	1	-2	-3.8	4
10	Buyuksehyr	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.4	3
11	Kayserispor	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.8	3
12	Trabzonspor	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.1	3
13	Karagumruk	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
14	Rizespor	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.0	2
15	Eyüpspor	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.6	1
16	Genclerbirligi	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.8	0
17	Kocaelispor	3	0	0	3	-5	-2.7	0
18	Besiktas	2	0	0	2	-5	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.