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Championship

Referee: John Brooks

Bristol City

U U T S S

1–3

Full-time

Oxford

T T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Oxford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

0,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

60%

Points per game

2,2

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

2,4

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,18 xG 1,72

59% Possession 41%

12 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 5

5 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 3. · Oxford 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	6	5	1	0	+7	+2.5	16
2	Stoke	6	4	0	2	+5	+0.2	12
3	Bristol City	5	3	2	0	+8	+0.5	11
4	Leicester	6	3	2	1	+3	-1.5	11
5	Preston	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.1	11
6	Coventry	6	2	4	0	+8	+6.9	10
7	West Brom	6	3	1	2	+1	+1.0	10
8	Birmingham	6	3	1	2	+0	+4.0	10
9	QPR	6	3	1	2	-2	-1.9	10
10	Swansea	6	2	2	2	+1	+0.0	8
11	Charlton	6	2	2	2	-1	+1.1	8
12	Portsmouth	6	2	2	2	-1	+1.0	8
13	Hull	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.8	8
14	Norwich	6	2	1	3	+0	-3.5	7
15	Wrexham	6	2	1	3	-1	-5.7	7
16	Millwall	5	2	1	2	-3	+2.3	7
17	Ipswich	5	1	3	1	+4	+4.9	6
18	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.0	6
19	Southampton	6	1	3	2	-2	+2.9	6
20	Watford	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.1	5
21	Derby	6	1	2	3	-4	-5.6	5
22	Sheffield Weds	6	1	1	4	-7	-3.2	4
23	Oxford	5	0	2	3	-3	-1.4	2
24	Sheffield United	6	0	0	6	-12	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+3	+1.0	9
2	QPR	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.9	7
3	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
4	Preston	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.2	7
5	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.1	7
6	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
7	Hull	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.6	6
8	Coventry	3	1	2	0	+6	+5.2	5
9	Ipswich	3	1	2	0	+5	+4.2	5
10	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.4	5
11	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
12	Watford	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.4	4
13	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.6	4
14	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
15	Charlton	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.3	4
16	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+1.0	3
17	Oxford	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.7	2
18	Wrexham	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.1	1
19	Derby	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.7	1
20	Norwich	3	0	0	3	-3	-0.3	0
21	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
22	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-5	+0.7	0
23	Millwall	2	0	0	2	-5	+0.8	0
24	Sheffield Weds	3	0	0	3	-8	-2.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+6	-0.1	7
2	Middlesbrough	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
3	Norwich	3	2	1	0	+3	-3.1	7
4	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.4	7
5	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
6	Blackburn	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.7	6
7	Wrexham	3	2	0	1	+2	-4.5	6
8	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.0	6
9	Coventry	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.7	5
10	Portsmouth	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.0	5
11	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.2	4
12	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	-4.0	4
13	Preston	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.1	4
14	Derby	3	1	1	1	-1	-3.0	4
15	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.2	4
16	Swansea	3	1	0	2	+0	-0.4	3
17	Birmingham	3	1	0	2	-2	+1.9	3
18	QPR	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.8	3
19	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.7	2
20	Hull	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.3	2
21	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
22	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
23	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
24	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.