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Pro League
Referee: Nathan Verboomen
Genk
T S T S U
1–2
Full-time
St. Gilloise
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genk St. Gilloise
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
3,7
2,5
Scored
2,2
2,2
Conceded
1,5
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Pro League · 3/5 matches
Win Ø 47%
33%
60%
Points per game
1,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
67%
40%
Both score Ø 60%
100%
20%
Average goals
3,3
2,2
Scored
1,7
2,0
Conceded
1,7
0,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,10 xG 0,66
64% Possession 36%
15 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 6
8 Corners 5
2 Offside 4
11 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Genk 14. · St. Gilloise 1.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 St. Gilloise 5 3 2 0 +9 +9.6 11
2 Anderlecht 6 3 2 1 +6 +5.7 11
3 St Truiden 6 3 2 1 +2 +5.0 11
4 Waregem 8 3 1 4 -2 -3.1 10
5 RAAL La Louviere 8 3 1 4 -2 -5.7 10
6 Gent 3 3 0 0 +5 +2.2 9
7 Club Brugge 4 3 0 1 +3 +3.2 9
8 Mechelen 5 2 2 1 +1 +0.8 8
9 Cercle Brugge 6 2 1 3 +1 +0.2 7
10 Charleroi 5 2 1 2 +1 -0.7 7
11 Westerlo 5 2 0 3 -2 -0.2 6
12 Antwerp 4 1 2 1 +0 -4.0 5
13 Standard 5 1 2 2 -4 -3.2 5
14 Genk 3 1 1 1 +0 +1.0 4
15 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4 1 0 3 -7 -2.0 3
16 Dender 7 0 1 6 -11 -8.8 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Genk St. Gilloise
10′
P. David 0–1
C. Burgess
Zakaria El Ouahdi 🟨
27′
44′
🟨 Fedde Leysen
Half-time 0–1
46′
🟨 Ousseynou Niang
1–1 J. Ito
J. Steuckers
56′
59′
🟨 Kevin Mac Allister
62′
🔁 K. Van De Perre
↦ M. Rasmussen
62′
🔁 R. Florucz
↦ P. David
Oh Hyeon-Gyu 🔁
↦ J. Erabi
69′
N. Adedeji-Sternberg 🔁
↦ J. Ito
69′
69′
🔁 L. Patris
↦ A. Khalaili
K. Nkuba 🔁
↦ Z. El Ouahdi
70′
Hyun-gyu Oh ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
78′
81′
🔁 R. Sykes
↦ O. Niang
81′
🔁 R. Schoofs
↦ A. Ait El Hadj
90′
🟨 Kamiel Van de Perre
90′
R. Schoofs 1–2
R. Florucz
Joris Kayembe 🟨
91′
Full-time 1–2

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,92
U
3,43
B ✓
2,28
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,75
U2,5
1,97
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Nathan Verboomen · 70 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
18,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.