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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

Stoke

U U U T T

2–2

Full-time

Derby

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,5

1,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%

19 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 23. · Derby 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Fulham	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	QPR	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
12	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Hull	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Wigan	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	1
22	Reading	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Reading	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Barnsley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.