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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Aston Villa

S T S U T

3–0

Full-time

Everton

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Everton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

25%

75%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,5

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

15 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 14. · Everton 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+11	13
2	Man City	5	3	1	1	+10	10
3	Man United	4	3	1	0	+8	10
4	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+8	10
5	Everton	4	3	1	0	+6	10
6	Brighton	4	3	0	1	+2	9
7	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+0	9
8	West Ham	4	2	2	0	+5	8
9	Brentford	5	2	2	1	+3	8
10	Watford	5	2	0	3	-2	6
11	Leicester	4	2	0	2	-2	6
12	Arsenal	5	2	0	3	-7	6
13	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Aston Villa	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Southampton	5	0	4	1	-2	4
16	Wolves	5	1	0	4	-3	3
17	Leeds	5	0	3	2	-7	3
18	Newcastle	5	0	2	3	-7	2
19	Burnley	5	0	1	4	-6	1
20	Norwich	5	0	0	5	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	2	1	0	+10	7
2	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Man United	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Everton	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Watford	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Leeds	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Norwich	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Brentford	3	1	2	0	+2	5
4	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Man United	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Man City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Watford	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Arsenal	3	1	0	2	-6	3
14	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
15	Leeds	3	0	2	1	-4	2
16	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-6	1
17	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.