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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

Derby

U T T S U

1–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

This season — Championship · 5/4 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

40%

75%

Both score Ø 68%

60%

75%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 7

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 15. · Nott'm Forest 25. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	West Brom	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Stoke	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Cardiff	5	2	3	0	+4	9
5	Coventry	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Luton	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	QPR	4	2	2	0	+4	8
8	Bournemouth	4	2	2	0	+3	8
9	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+4	7
10	Blackburn	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Huddersfield	4	2	1	1	-2	7
12	Preston	5	2	0	3	-3	6
13	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Barnsley	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Derby	5	1	2	2	-1	5
16	Bristol City	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Swansea	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Peterboro	4	1	1	2	-3	4
19	Peterborough	4	1	1	2	-3	4
20	Reading	4	1	0	3	-2	3
21	Hull	4	1	0	3	-3	3
22	Millwall	4	0	2	2	-3	2
23	Blackpool	4	0	2	2	-3	2
24	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-6	1
25	Nott'm Forest	4	0	0	4	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Coventry	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Luton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Preston	3	2	0	1	-1	6
6	Cardiff	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Peterboro	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Peterborough	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Reading	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	-3	3
15	Bournemouth	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	QPR	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Swansea	2	0	1	1	-2	1
21	Birmingham	2	0	1	1	-2	1
22	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Blackpool	2	0	0	2	-3	0
25	Hull	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Birmingham	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	QPR	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Cardiff	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Huddersfield	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Hull	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Luton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Derby	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Blackpool	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Barnsley	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Middlesbrough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Sheffield United	2	0	1	1	-4	1
21	Reading	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Peterboro	2	0	0	2	-4	0
25	Peterborough	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.