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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Arouca

T T S T U

2–2

Full-time

Guimaraes

T U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,5

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

60%

20%

Both score Ø 20%

40%

Average goals

2,8

1,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

2,0

0,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%

11 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 13. · Guimaraes 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Estoril	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Porto	5	3	2	0	+6	11
4	Sp Lisbon	5	3	2	0	+6	11
5	Portimonense	6	3	1	2	+3	10
6	Boavista	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Guimaraes	5	1	3	1	+3	6
11	Maritimo	6	1	3	2	-2	6
12	Vizela	5	1	2	2	-6	5
13	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-6	4
14	Santa Clara	6	1	1	4	-10	4
15	Moreirense	5	0	3	2	-2	3
16	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-3	3
17	Famalicao	6	0	3	3	-4	3
18	Belenenses	6	0	3	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+3	4
6	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Vizela	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Estoril	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-4	4
11	Tondela	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Portimonense	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Belenenses	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Famalicao	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Maritimo	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Moreirense	3	0	1	2	-2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Estoril	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Portimonense	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Porto	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Moreirense	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Guimaraes	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Famalicao	3	0	1	2	-3	1
13	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Belenenses	3	0	1	2	-4	1
15	Arouca	3	0	1	2	-5	1
16	Vizela	3	0	1	2	-7	1
17	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Santa Clara	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.