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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Burnley

T T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

75%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

0,8

0,3

Conceded

2,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%

18 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 3

4 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 19. · Arsenal 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Liverpool	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+8	10
4	Everton	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Man City	4	3	0	1	+10	9
6	Brighton	4	3	0	1	+2	9
7	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+0	9
8	West Ham	4	2	2	0	+5	8
9	Brentford	5	2	2	1	+3	8
10	Leicester	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Aston Villa	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Southampton	4	0	3	1	-2	3
14	Wolves	5	1	0	4	-3	3
15	Watford	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Leeds	5	0	3	2	-7	3
17	Arsenal	4	1	0	3	-8	3
18	Newcastle	5	0	2	3	-7	2
19	Burnley	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Norwich	4	0	0	4	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+10	6
2	Man United	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Everton	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Watford	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Leeds	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Brentford	3	1	2	0	+2	5
4	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Man United	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Man City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Leeds	3	0	2	1	-4	2
13	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Watford	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
17	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-5	0
19	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-6	0
20	Arsenal	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.