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Championship

Referee: D England

Derby

S T T S S

1–0

Full-time

Bristol City

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

This season — Championship · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 36%

24%

48%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 28%

16%

40%

Both score Ø 34%

24%

44%

Average goals

1,6

2,2

Scored

0,6

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 4

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 0

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 21. · Bristol City 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	26	16	6	4	+14	54
2	Watford	26	13	8	5	+12	47
3	Reading	26	14	5	7	+11	47
4	Bournemouth	25	11	9	5	+16	42
5	Brentford	22	11	8	3	+15	41
6	Swansea	22	11	7	4	+12	40
7	Middlesbrough	27	11	7	9	+6	40
8	Bristol City	25	12	3	10	+0	39
9	Stoke	26	9	10	7	+3	37
10	Blackburn	25	10	6	9	+12	36
11	Preston	26	11	3	12	-2	36
12	Barnsley	24	10	5	9	-1	35
13	Luton	25	9	6	10	-6	33
14	Huddersfield	26	9	4	13	-8	31
15	Cardiff	25	8	6	11	+2	30
16	Millwall	25	6	12	7	-3	30
17	Coventry	25	7	8	10	-10	29
18	QPR	25	6	9	10	-8	27
19	Birmingham	25	6	8	11	-12	26
20	Nott'm Forest	25	6	7	12	-9	25
21	Derby	25	6	7	12	-9	25
22	Sheffield Weds	24	6	7	11	-10	25
23	Rotherham	23	6	5	12	-6	23
24	Wycombe	23	3	6	14	-19	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	13	10	2	1	+14	32
2	Norwich	14	8	5	1	+9	29
3	Reading	13	9	0	4	+9	27
4	Bournemouth	12	7	3	2	+11	24
5	Swansea	12	6	5	1	+8	23
6	Middlesbrough	13	7	2	4	+6	23
7	Bristol City	13	7	2	4	+3	23
8	Huddersfield	13	7	1	5	+5	22
9	Barnsley	12	6	3	3	+3	21
10	Coventry	12	5	5	2	+1	20
11	Brentford	10	5	4	1	+7	19
12	Blackburn	12	5	4	3	+6	19
13	Luton	12	5	4	3	+2	19
14	Stoke	13	5	3	5	-1	18
15	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	+1	17
16	Nott'm Forest	13	4	4	5	+0	16
17	Cardiff	13	4	2	7	+2	14
18	Preston	13	4	2	7	-3	14
19	QPR	12	3	4	5	-3	13
20	Rotherham	11	3	3	5	+0	12
21	Millwall	12	1	8	3	-3	11
22	Wycombe	12	2	4	6	-6	10
23	Derby	13	2	4	7	-9	10
24	Birmingham	13	2	2	9	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	12	8	1	3	+5	25
2	Brentford	12	6	4	2	+8	22
3	Preston	13	7	1	5	+1	22
4	Reading	13	5	5	3	+2	20
5	Stoke	13	4	7	2	+4	19
6	Millwall	13	5	4	4	+0	19
7	Bournemouth	13	4	6	3	+5	18
8	Birmingham	12	4	6	2	+2	18
9	Blackburn	13	5	2	6	+6	17
10	Swansea	10	5	2	3	+4	17
11	Middlesbrough	14	4	5	5	+0	17
12	Cardiff	12	4	4	4	+0	16
13	Bristol City	12	5	1	6	-3	16
14	Derby	12	4	3	5	+0	15
15	Watford	13	3	6	4	-2	15
16	Barnsley	12	4	2	6	-4	14
17	QPR	13	3	5	5	-5	14
18	Luton	13	4	2	7	-8	14
19	Rotherham	12	3	2	7	-6	11
20	Nott'm Forest	12	2	3	7	-9	9
21	Coventry	13	2	3	8	-11	9
22	Huddersfield	13	2	3	8	-13	9
23	Sheffield Weds	12	2	2	8	-11	8
24	Wycombe	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.