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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Bristol City

S S S S T

3–2

Full-time

Derby

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,7

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

This season — Championship · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 40%

45%

35%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

58%

48%

Both score Ø 54%

55%

52%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

33% Possession 67%

16 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 6

4 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 6. · Derby 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	31	16	11	4	+22	59
2	Leeds	32	16	8	8	+17	56
3	Fulham	29	16	6	7	+15	54
4	Nott'm Forest	32	15	9	8	+12	54
5	Preston	31	14	8	9	+9	50
6	Bristol City	31	14	8	9	+2	50
7	Blackburn	32	13	8	11	+8	47
8	Swansea	30	12	11	7	+5	47
9	Brentford	29	13	6	10	+21	45
10	Millwall	31	11	12	8	+1	45
11	Cardiff	30	11	12	7	+0	45
12	Sheffield Weds	31	12	8	11	+7	44
13	Derby	31	11	10	10	-3	43
14	Birmingham	32	12	7	13	-7	43
15	Hull	32	11	7	14	-4	40
16	Reading	31	10	9	12	+2	39
17	QPR	32	11	6	15	-9	39
18	Middlesbrough	32	8	13	11	-8	37
19	Charlton	32	9	9	14	-4	36
20	Huddersfield	31	9	8	14	-11	35
21	Stoke	31	10	4	17	-8	34
22	Wigan	32	7	9	16	-17	30
23	Barnsley	32	5	10	17	-21	25
24	Luton	31	7	3	21	-29	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	16	10	3	3	+13	33
2	Derby	16	9	5	2	+12	32
3	Fulham	16	10	2	4	+11	32
4	Blackburn	17	8	6	3	+8	30
5	Cardiff	14	8	5	1	+10	29
6	Leeds	15	8	4	3	+9	28
7	Millwall	15	8	4	3	+7	28
8	West Brom	15	7	6	2	+12	27
9	Nott'm Forest	16	8	3	5	+4	27
10	Brentford	14	7	4	3	+13	25
11	Swansea	16	7	4	5	+5	25
12	Middlesbrough	16	6	7	3	+1	25
13	Charlton	16	6	5	5	+3	23
14	Sheffield Weds	15	6	5	4	-1	23
15	QPR	16	6	4	6	+1	22
16	Bristol City	15	6	4	5	+0	22
17	Stoke	16	6	3	7	+1	21
18	Birmingham	15	6	3	6	+0	21
19	Reading	15	6	2	7	+1	20
20	Hull	16	6	2	8	-1	20
21	Huddersfield	16	5	5	6	-3	20
22	Wigan	16	5	5	6	-5	20
23	Barnsley	17	4	7	6	-6	19
24	Luton	15	5	3	7	-2	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	16	9	5	2	+10	32
2	Leeds	17	8	4	5	+8	28
3	Bristol City	16	8	4	4	+2	28
4	Nott'm Forest	16	7	6	3	+8	27
5	Fulham	13	6	4	3	+4	22
6	Swansea	14	5	7	2	+0	22
7	Birmingham	17	6	4	7	-7	22
8	Sheffield Weds	16	6	3	7	+8	21
9	Brentford	15	6	2	7	+8	20
10	Hull	16	5	5	6	-3	20
11	Reading	16	4	7	5	+1	19
12	Blackburn	15	5	2	8	+0	17
13	Preston	15	4	5	6	-4	17
14	Millwall	16	3	8	5	-6	17
15	QPR	16	5	2	9	-10	17
16	Cardiff	16	3	7	6	-10	16
17	Huddersfield	15	4	3	8	-8	15
18	Charlton	16	3	4	9	-7	13
19	Stoke	15	4	1	10	-9	13
20	Middlesbrough	16	2	6	8	-9	12
21	Derby	15	2	5	8	-15	11
22	Wigan	16	2	4	10	-12	10
23	Barnsley	15	1	3	11	-15	6
24	Luton	16	2	0	14	-27	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.