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Championship

Referee: T Harrington

Birmingham

S T T T U

0–4

Full-time

Derby

S U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,0

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

This season — Championship · 21/20 matches

Win Ø 20%

24%

15%

Points per game

1,1

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 27%

38%

15%

Both score Ø 41%

52%

30%

Average goals

1,9

1,7

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

48% Possession 52%

7 Shots 20

1 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

5 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 17. · Derby 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	21	13	4	4	+10	43
2	Bournemouth	20	10	8	2	+19	38
3	Brentford	20	10	7	3	+14	37
4	Watford	21	10	7	4	+9	37
5	Reading	21	11	3	7	+5	36
6	Swansea	19	10	5	4	+11	35
7	Stoke	21	9	7	5	+5	34
8	Middlesbrough	20	9	6	5	+9	33
9	Bristol City	21	10	3	8	+0	33
10	Barnsley	20	9	4	7	+0	31
11	Blackburn	21	8	5	8	+10	29
12	Cardiff	21	8	5	8	+5	29
13	Preston	21	9	2	10	-2	29
14	Huddersfield	21	8	4	9	-4	28
15	Luton	21	7	6	8	-5	27
16	Millwall	20	5	10	5	-1	25
17	Birmingham	21	5	8	8	-6	23
18	Coventry	21	5	8	8	-8	23
19	QPR	21	4	8	9	-10	20
20	Sheffield Weds	21	4	7	10	-10	19
21	Nott'm Forest	21	4	6	11	-11	18
22	Rotherham	19	4	4	11	-9	16
23	Derby	20	3	7	10	-13	16
24	Wycombe	21	2	6	13	-18	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	11	8	2	1	+11	26
2	Bournemouth	10	7	2	1	+12	23
3	Middlesbrough	10	7	2	1	+11	23
4	Norwich	10	6	3	1	+6	21
5	Reading	11	7	0	4	+4	21
6	Barnsley	11	6	2	3	+3	20
7	Huddersfield	10	6	1	3	+6	19
8	Swansea	9	5	3	1	+7	18
9	Blackburn	11	5	3	3	+6	18
10	Stoke	10	5	2	3	+1	17
11	Bristol City	11	5	2	4	+0	17
12	Coventry	11	4	5	2	-1	17
13	Brentford	9	4	4	1	+6	16
14	Luton	10	4	4	2	+3	16
15	Cardiff	11	4	2	5	+4	14
16	Nott'm Forest	11	3	4	4	-1	13
17	QPR	11	3	4	4	-2	13
18	Rotherham	9	3	2	4	+1	11
19	Sheffield Weds	10	2	5	3	-1	11
20	Millwall	10	1	7	2	-2	10
21	Preston	10	3	1	6	-4	10
22	Birmingham	10	2	2	6	-7	8
23	Wycombe	10	1	4	5	-5	7
24	Derby	11	1	4	6	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	11	7	1	3	+4	22
2	Brentford	11	6	3	2	+8	21
3	Preston	11	6	1	4	+2	19
4	Swansea	10	5	2	3	+4	17
5	Stoke	11	4	5	2	+4	17
6	Bristol City	10	5	1	4	+0	16
7	Bournemouth	10	3	6	1	+7	15
8	Reading	10	4	3	3	+1	15
9	Cardiff	10	4	3	3	+1	15
10	Birmingham	11	3	6	2	+1	15
11	Millwall	10	4	3	3	+1	15
12	Blackburn	10	3	2	5	+4	11
13	Watford	10	2	5	3	-2	11
14	Barnsley	9	3	2	4	-3	11
15	Luton	11	3	2	6	-8	11
16	Middlesbrough	10	2	4	4	-2	10
17	Derby	9	2	3	4	-4	9
18	Huddersfield	11	2	3	6	-10	9
19	Sheffield Weds	11	2	2	7	-9	8
20	QPR	10	1	4	5	-8	7
21	Coventry	10	1	3	6	-7	6
22	Rotherham	10	1	2	7	-10	5
23	Nott'm Forest	10	1	2	7	-10	5
24	Wycombe	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.