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Championship

Referee: K Stroud

Bristol City

U T T S S

1–0

Full-time

Derby

U U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Championship · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 32%

55%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

45%

18%

Both score Ø 46%

55%

36%

Average goals

2,4

1,9

Scored

1,4

0,5

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

37% Possession 63%

11 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 5. · Derby 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	12	6	5	1	+8	23
2	Reading	12	7	1	4	+3	22
3	Watford	11	6	3	2	+5	21
4	Norwich	11	6	3	2	+5	21
5	Bristol City	11	6	2	3	+4	20
6	Swansea	10	5	3	2	+6	18
7	Middlesbrough	11	4	6	1	+4	18
8	Stoke	11	5	3	3	+3	18
9	Millwall	11	4	5	2	+2	17
10	Luton	11	5	2	4	-2	17
11	Brentford	10	4	3	3	+5	15
12	Blackburn	11	4	2	5	+7	14
13	Huddersfield	11	4	2	5	-1	14
14	Birmingham	12	3	5	4	-2	14
15	Preston	11	4	1	6	+1	13
16	Cardiff	11	3	4	4	+1	13
17	Barnsley	11	3	4	4	-1	13
18	QPR	11	3	4	4	-4	13
19	Rotherham	11	3	3	5	-2	12
20	Nott'm Forest	11	3	3	5	-3	12
21	Sheffield Weds	11	3	3	5	-4	12
22	Coventry	12	2	3	7	-11	9
23	Wycombe	11	2	1	8	-13	7
24	Derby	11	1	3	7	-11	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	6	5	1	0	+6	16
2	Bournemouth	6	4	2	0	+5	14
3	Reading	6	4	0	2	+1	12
4	Middlesbrough	5	3	2	0	+4	11
5	Norwich	6	3	2	1	+2	11
6	Swansea	5	3	1	1	+4	10
7	Blackburn	6	2	2	2	+4	8
8	Brentford	5	2	2	1	+3	8
9	Barnsley	5	2	2	1	+3	8
10	QPR	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	Nott'm Forest	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Stoke	5	2	2	1	+0	8
13	Coventry	6	2	2	2	-4	8
14	Rotherham	6	2	1	3	+1	7
15	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+0	7
16	Huddersfield	6	2	1	3	-1	7
17	Birmingham	6	2	1	3	-2	7
18	Luton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
19	Millwall	5	1	3	1	-1	6
20	Sheffield Weds	6	1	3	2	-1	6
21	Cardiff	6	1	2	3	-1	5
22	Wycombe	5	1	1	3	-3	4
23	Derby	6	0	1	5	-10	1
24	Preston	5	0	0	5	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	6	4	1	1	+7	13
2	Bristol City	6	4	1	1	+4	13
3	Millwall	6	3	2	1	+3	11
4	Stoke	6	3	1	2	+3	10
5	Norwich	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Reading	6	3	1	2	+2	10
7	Luton	6	3	1	2	+0	10
8	Bournemouth	6	2	3	1	+3	9
9	Cardiff	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
11	Brentford	5	2	1	2	+2	7
12	Huddersfield	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Birmingham	6	1	4	1	+0	7
14	Middlesbrough	6	1	4	1	+0	7
15	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	+3	6
16	Sheffield Weds	5	2	0	3	-3	6
17	Derby	5	1	2	2	-1	5
18	Watford	5	1	2	2	-1	5
19	Rotherham	5	1	2	2	-3	5
20	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-4	5
21	QPR	6	1	2	3	-5	5
22	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-3	4
23	Wycombe	6	1	0	5	-10	3
24	Coventry	6	0	1	5	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.