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Championship

Referee: S Martin

Derby

S T S U U

1–2

Full-time

Bristol City

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

67% Possession 33%

18 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 0

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 8. · Bristol City 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Charlton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Sheffield Weds	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Fulham	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Derby	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+2	4
10	Hull	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-1	4
14	QPR	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	-2	4
16	Preston	3	1	0	2	+1	3
17	Reading	3	1	0	2	+0	3
18	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	-2	3
19	Cardiff	3	1	0	2	-3	3
20	Wigan	3	1	0	2	-4	3
21	Luton	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Middlesbrough	3	0	1	2	-2	1
23	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-2	1
24	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Preston	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+2	3
6	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Reading	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Wigan	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	QPR	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Barnsley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-3	0
24	Cardiff	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.