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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

QPR

U T U S S

0–1

Full-time

Derby

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

QPR Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,5

1,7

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

This season — Championship · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 23%

25%

21%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 23%

29%

17%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,6

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

12 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match QPR 17. · Derby 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	25	16	5	4	+14	53
2	Watford	25	13	7	5	+12	46
3	Reading	24	13	4	7	+9	43
4	Bournemouth	24	11	9	4	+18	42
5	Brentford	21	11	7	3	+15	40
6	Swansea	21	11	6	4	+12	39
7	Middlesbrough	24	11	6	7	+10	39
8	Stoke	26	9	10	7	+3	37
9	Bristol City	24	11	3	10	-1	36
10	Preston	25	11	2	12	-2	35
11	Barnsley	23	10	4	9	-1	34
12	Blackburn	24	9	6	9	+11	33
13	Luton	25	9	6	10	-6	33
14	Huddersfield	25	9	4	12	-7	31
15	Cardiff	24	8	5	11	+2	29
16	Millwall	24	6	11	7	-3	29
17	QPR	24	6	9	9	-7	27
18	Coventry	24	6	8	10	-12	26
19	Birmingham	25	6	8	11	-12	26
20	Sheffield Weds	23	6	7	10	-8	25
21	Nott'm Forest	25	6	7	12	-9	25
22	Derby	24	5	7	12	-10	22
23	Rotherham	22	5	5	12	-9	20
24	Wycombe	23	3	6	14	-19	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	13	10	2	1	+14	32
2	Norwich	13	8	4	1	+9	28
3	Bournemouth	12	7	3	2	+11	24
4	Reading	12	8	0	4	+7	24
5	Middlesbrough	11	7	2	2	+10	23
6	Swansea	11	6	4	1	+8	22
7	Huddersfield	13	7	1	5	+5	22
8	Barnsley	11	6	2	3	+3	20
9	Bristol City	12	6	2	4	+2	20
10	Brentford	10	5	4	1	+7	19
11	Blackburn	12	5	4	3	+6	19
12	Luton	12	5	4	3	+2	19
13	Stoke	13	5	3	5	-1	18
14	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	+1	17
15	Coventry	11	4	5	2	-1	17
16	Nott'm Forest	13	4	4	5	+0	16
17	Cardiff	13	4	2	7	+2	14
18	QPR	11	3	4	4	-2	13
19	Preston	12	4	1	7	-3	13
20	Rotherham	11	3	3	5	+0	12
21	Millwall	11	1	7	3	-3	10
22	Wycombe	12	2	4	6	-6	10
23	Derby	13	2	4	7	-9	10
24	Birmingham	13	2	2	9	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	12	8	1	3	+5	25
2	Preston	13	7	1	5	+1	22
3	Brentford	11	6	3	2	+8	21
4	Stoke	13	4	7	2	+4	19
5	Reading	12	5	4	3	+2	19
6	Millwall	13	5	4	4	+0	19
7	Bournemouth	12	4	6	2	+7	18
8	Birmingham	12	4	6	2	+2	18
9	Swansea	10	5	2	3	+4	17
10	Middlesbrough	13	4	4	5	+0	16
11	Bristol City	12	5	1	6	-3	16
12	Cardiff	11	4	3	4	+0	15
13	Blackburn	12	4	2	6	+5	14
14	Watford	12	3	5	4	-2	14
15	Barnsley	12	4	2	6	-4	14
16	QPR	13	3	5	5	-5	14
17	Luton	13	4	2	7	-8	14
18	Derby	11	3	3	5	-1	12
19	Nott'm Forest	12	2	3	7	-9	9
20	Coventry	13	2	3	8	-11	9
21	Huddersfield	12	2	3	7	-12	9
22	Rotherham	11	2	2	7	-9	8
23	Sheffield Weds	11	2	2	7	-9	8
24	Wycombe	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.