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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Bologna

U U T S T

1–2

Full-time

Milan

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 47%

26%

68%

Points per game

1,1

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

53%

68%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,1

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

48% Possession 52%

10 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 13

2 Blocked shots 3

8 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bologna 13. · Milan 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	19	13	4	2	+17	43
2	Inter	19	12	5	2	+22	41
3	Roma	19	11	4	4	+9	37
4	Atalanta	19	10	6	3	+21	36
5	Juventus	18	10	6	2	+19	36
6	Napoli	18	11	1	6	+22	34
7	Lazio	19	10	4	5	+6	34
8	Verona	19	8	6	5	+7	30
9	Sassuolo	19	8	6	5	+3	30
10	Sampdoria	19	8	2	9	+1	26
11	Fiorentina	20	5	7	8	-10	22
12	Benevento	19	6	4	9	-13	22
13	Bologna	19	5	5	9	-9	20
14	Udinese	19	4	6	9	-8	18
15	Spezia	19	4	6	9	-10	18
16	Genoa	19	4	6	9	-11	18
17	Torino	20	2	9	9	-9	15
18	Cagliari	19	3	5	11	-14	14
19	Parma	19	2	7	10	-22	13
20	Crotone	19	3	3	13	-21	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	10	7	3	0	+13	24
2	Inter	9	7	1	1	+12	22
3	Juventus	9	6	2	1	+10	20
4	Milan	10	5	3	2	+5	18
5	Atalanta	9	5	2	2	+12	17
6	Verona	10	5	2	3	+5	17
7	Lazio	10	5	2	3	+2	17
8	Napoli	9	5	1	3	+15	16
9	Fiorentina	10	4	4	2	+2	16
10	Bologna	9	4	2	3	+0	14
11	Sampdoria	9	4	1	4	+3	13
12	Sassuolo	9	3	4	2	+1	13
13	Genoa	10	3	2	5	-2	11
14	Crotone	9	3	1	5	-4	10
15	Udinese	10	2	3	5	-5	9
16	Benevento	10	2	3	5	-9	9
17	Cagliari	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Parma	10	1	4	5	-12	7
19	Torino	10	0	6	4	-5	6
20	Spezia	9	1	3	5	-8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	9	8	1	0	+12	25
2	Inter	10	5	4	1	+10	19
3	Atalanta	10	5	4	1	+9	19
4	Napoli	9	6	0	3	+7	18
5	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+4	17
6	Sassuolo	10	5	2	3	+2	17
7	Juventus	9	4	4	1	+9	16
8	Verona	9	3	4	2	+2	13
9	Sampdoria	10	4	1	5	-2	13
10	Roma	9	4	1	4	-4	13
11	Benevento	9	4	1	4	-4	13
12	Spezia	10	3	3	4	-2	12
13	Udinese	9	2	3	4	-3	9
14	Torino	10	2	3	5	-4	9
15	Genoa	9	1	4	4	-9	7
16	Cagliari	10	1	3	6	-8	6
17	Bologna	10	1	3	6	-9	6
18	Parma	9	1	3	5	-10	6
19	Fiorentina	10	1	3	6	-12	6
20	Crotone	10	0	2	8	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.