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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Nacional

S T T T U

2–1

Full-time

Famalicao

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

33%

53%

Both score Ø 54%

47%

60%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

42% Possession 58%

17 Shots 14

8 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

22 Free kicks against 15

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 14. · Famalicao 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	12	3	0	+24	39
2	Porto	15	11	2	2	+20	35
3	Benfica	15	10	3	2	+15	33
4	Sp Braga	15	10	0	5	+9	30
5	Pacos Ferreira	15	8	4	3	+10	28
6	Guimaraes	14	8	2	4	+6	26
7	Santa Clara	15	5	3	7	-4	18
8	Moreirense	15	4	6	5	-4	18
9	Maritimo	15	5	2	8	-5	17
10	Belenenses	15	3	6	6	-4	15
11	Portimonense	15	4	3	8	-7	15
12	Rio Ave	15	3	6	6	-7	15
13	Tondela	15	4	3	8	-12	15
14	Nacional	15	3	5	7	-7	14
15	Famalicao	15	3	5	7	-10	14
16	Gil Vicente	15	3	4	8	-7	13
17	Farense	14	3	3	8	-5	12
18	Boavista	15	1	8	6	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	6	1	1	+10	19
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+8	19
3	Sp Braga	7	6	0	1	+7	18
4	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+10	17
5	Pacos Ferreira	7	5	1	1	+6	16
6	Tondela	8	4	2	2	+0	14
7	Moreirense	8	3	4	1	+3	13
8	Farense	8	3	2	3	+2	11
9	Portimonense	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Belenenses	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	Nacional	8	2	3	3	-2	9
12	Guimaraes	7	3	0	4	-3	9
13	Rio Ave	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Gil Vicente	7	2	2	3	-1	8
15	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-3	8
16	Famalicao	8	1	3	4	-8	6
17	Santa Clara	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	7	1	0	+14	22
2	Guimaraes	7	5	2	0	+9	17
3	Porto	7	5	1	1	+10	16
4	Benfica	7	4	2	1	+7	14
5	Santa Clara	8	4	1	3	+1	13
6	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	3	2	+4	12
7	Sp Braga	8	4	0	4	+2	12
8	Maritimo	8	3	0	5	-2	9
9	Famalicao	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-6	7
11	Belenenses	7	1	3	3	-3	6
12	Boavista	8	0	6	2	-4	6
13	Nacional	7	1	2	4	-5	5
14	Gil Vicente	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Moreirense	7	1	2	4	-7	5
16	Portimonense	8	1	1	6	-8	4
17	Farense	6	0	1	5	-7	1
18	Tondela	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.