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Championship

Referee: S Hooper

Derby

T U T U U

3–2

Full-time

Birmingham

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

This season — Championship · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

13%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

50%

38%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

2,4

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

7 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 9

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 18. · Birmingham 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	9	5	4	0	+7	19
2	Nott'm Forest	9	5	3	1	+6	18
3	Leeds	8	5	2	1	+9	17
4	Swansea	8	5	2	1	+7	17
5	Preston	8	5	1	2	+7	16
6	QPR	9	5	1	3	+0	16
7	Bristol City	8	4	3	1	+4	15
8	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+7	14
9	Charlton	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	Sheffield Weds	8	4	1	3	+4	13
11	Blackburn	8	4	1	3	+1	13
12	Birmingham	8	4	1	3	-2	13
13	Cardiff	7	3	2	2	-1	11
14	Hull	8	2	3	3	+0	9
15	Middlesbrough	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Millwall	8	2	3	3	-5	9
17	Brentford	8	2	2	4	-1	8
18	Derby	8	1	5	2	-3	8
19	Wigan	9	2	2	5	-7	8
20	Reading	8	2	1	5	-2	7
21	Luton	8	2	1	5	-4	7
22	Barnsley	8	1	2	5	-8	5
23	Stoke	9	0	2	7	-11	2
24	Huddersfield	8	0	1	7	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Fulham	5	3	1	1	+7	10
3	Swansea	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Cardiff	3	3	0	0	+3	9
5	West Brom	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Nott'm Forest	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Blackburn	4	2	1	1	+2	7
11	Wigan	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Millwall	4	2	1	1	+1	7
13	Middlesbrough	4	2	1	1	+1	7
14	QPR	5	2	1	2	-1	7
15	Brentford	4	1	2	1	+2	5
16	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+0	5
17	Leeds	4	1	2	1	+0	5
18	Hull	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Luton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
20	Barnsley	4	1	1	2	-3	4
21	Derby	4	0	3	1	-1	3
22	Reading	4	1	0	3	-2	3
23	Stoke	5	0	1	4	-6	1
24	Huddersfield	4	0	0	4	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	West Brom	5	3	2	0	+4	11
3	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+3	11
4	Bristol City	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	QPR	4	3	0	1	+1	9
6	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Sheffield Weds	4	2	0	2	+2	6
9	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Birmingham	4	2	0	2	-4	6
11	Hull	4	1	2	1	+2	5
12	Derby	4	1	2	1	-2	5
13	Reading	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Preston	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Luton	4	1	0	3	-1	3
17	Brentford	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Middlesbrough	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Cardiff	4	0	2	2	-4	2
20	Millwall	4	0	2	2	-6	2
21	Huddersfield	4	0	1	3	-4	1
22	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-5	1
23	Barnsley	4	0	1	3	-5	1
24	Wigan	5	0	1	4	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.