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Primeira Liga

Referee: Iancu Vasilica

Famalicao

S U S S S

3–1

Full-time

Belenenses

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Famalicao Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

1,5

Scored

2,2

0,5

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

1,5

Scored

2,2

0,5

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%

16 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 5

15 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Famalicao 3. · Belenenses 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+14	21
2	Porto	7	6	0	1	+15	18
3	Famalicao	6	5	1	0	+7	16
4	Boavista	7	2	5	0	+2	11
5	Rio Ave	6	3	1	2	+4	10
6	Tondela	8	2	4	2	+0	10
7	Guimaraes	6	2	3	1	+3	9
8	Sp Lisbon	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Santa Clara	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Gil Vicente	7	1	4	2	-4	7
13	Setubal	7	1	4	2	-4	7
14	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	4	2	-4	7
15	Portimonense	7	1	3	3	-3	6
16	Belenenses	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Sp Braga	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	1	4	-8	4
19	Aves	6	1	0	5	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Gil Vicente	5	1	4	0	+1	7
4	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Moreirense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Boavista	4	1	3	0	+1	6
7	Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
9	Guimaraes	3	1	2	0	+4	5
10	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+2	4
11	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	-2	4
14	Aves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Sp Lisbon	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	0	2	-1	3
17	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Belenenses	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Famalicao	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Tondela	5	2	3	0	+3	9
4	Porto	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Rio Ave	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Sp Lisbon	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Boavista	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Portimonense	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
14	Sp Braga	4	0	1	3	-3	1
15	Setubal	3	0	1	2	-5	1
16	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-7	1
18	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-5	0
19	Aves	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.